Heracles 0-2 Heerenveen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Heracles at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Heracles vs Heerenveen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Heracles and Heerenveen meet at Erve Asito in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 14 April 2024 at 11:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Heracles have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Heracles have posted 3W 3D 4L at Erve Asito — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Heerenveen (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L D D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Heerenveen away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 3 meetings, Heerenveen have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Heracles's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2023, ended 0–3 with Heerenveen winning.
It is worth noting that Heerenveen have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Heracles goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Heerenveen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 54% versus Heerenveen 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Heracles 72% | Heerenveen 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 2.10 xG and Heerenveen 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 1.108 / defence 1.224 | Heerenveen attack 1.027 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.756 / away 1.346. Data: 29 Heracles games / 63 Heerenveen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 46% | Draw 24% | Heerenveen 30%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | Heerenveen 3.33. Heracles hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.80. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.80 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.10 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Heracles at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Heracles if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.80 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 73%. Form rates are neutral: Heracles 50% | Heerenveen 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs Heerenveen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Erve Asito • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Apr 2024, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 46% | Draw 24% | Heerenveen 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 73% | xG Heracles 2.10 / Heerenveen 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 1.108 / def 1.224 | Heerenveen attack 1.027 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.756 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: Heracles (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Heerenveen xG
73%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs Heerenveen kick off?
Heracles vs Heerenveen kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 14 April 2024 at Erve Asito.
What was the final score in Heracles vs Heerenveen?
Heracles 0 - 2 Heerenveen.
Where is Heracles vs Heerenveen being played?
The match is being played at Erve Asito.
What competition is Heracles vs Heerenveen part of?
Heracles vs Heerenveen is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs Heerenveen?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 46% chance of winning, Heerenveen a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs Heerenveen?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Heracles and Heerenveen will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs Heerenveen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Heerenveen?
Record (3 meetings): Heracles 0W | Draws 0 | Heerenveen 3W.
What form are Heracles and Heerenveen in?
Heracles (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Heerenveen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Heracles's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Heerenveen's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.10. Flip it around — Heerenveen's attack (1.03x) against Heracles's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.69.
These ratings are built from 29/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
46%
2.17
24%
4.14
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Heracles xG
Total xG
3.80
1.69
Heerenveen xG
2.17
46%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.36
27%
BTTS No
3.74
Clean Sheet
18%
5.43
12%
8.21
Win to Nil
8%
11.79
4%
27.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 8.0 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs Heerenveen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Heracles and Heerenveen expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Heracles and 1.69 for Heerenveen, a combined total of 3.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs Heerenveen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 65 outings, Heracles have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 34W 9D 22L record — L-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Heerenveen's form line: 21W 16D 28L from 65 games, 1.22 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-L.
Put side by side, Heracles are the form team by 0.49 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Heerenveen.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Heracles have posted 2.06 PPG from 32 outings (20W 6D 6L).
On the road, Heerenveen have gone 9W 10D 13L from 32 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Heracles come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Heracles are averaging 2.09 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Heerenveen are on 1.43 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Current Season
Heerenveen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and Heerenveen in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 34W 9D 22L in their last 65 games (1.71 PPG), while Heerenveen have gone 21W 16D 28L in their last 65 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or Heerenveen away?
Heracles's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 2.06 PPG; Heerenveen away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Heerenveen have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Heerenveen won 3-0 on 28 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Heracles have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Heerenveen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Heracles
1
Draws
6
Heerenveen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Heerenveen?
From 8 meetings on record, Heracles have won 1, Heerenveen have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and Heerenveen last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Heerenveen 4-1 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and Heerenveen?
Heerenveen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Heerenveen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 56%, Heerenveen 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Heracles and 56% for Heerenveen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Heerenveen in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / Heerenveen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play Heerenveen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Heracles's recent matches and 44% of Heerenveen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Heracles vs Heerenveen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Heracles's matches and 56% of Heerenveen's.
Do Heracles and Heerenveen tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Heerenveen in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Heerenveen cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Heracles.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heerenveen beat Heracles 0-2 at Erve Asito, Regular Season - 30, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 2.10 xG and Heerenveen 1.69 xG, a combined 3.80. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Heracles fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 1.11 / defence 1.22 against Heerenveen attack 1.03 / defence 1.08, drawn from 29/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 46% | Draw 24% | Heerenveen 30%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Heerenveen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 72%, Heerenveen 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Heerenveen's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Heracles arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.22. Form was overturned, with Heerenveen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Heracles (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.56 scoring average — below par going forward. Heerenveen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.