Heracles 5-0 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees AZ Alkmaar travel to Erve Asito to take on Heracles. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 3 April 2024, 17:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Heracles stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heracles's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Erve Asito this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, AZ Alkmaar have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AZ Alkmaar's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. AZ Alkmaar are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Heracles register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, AZ Alkmaar in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Heracles have won 1, AZ Alkmaar 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Heracles in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
AZ Alkmaar in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 54% versus AZ Alkmaar 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Heracles 70% | AZ Alkmaar 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 1.09 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 0.944 / defence 1.334 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.068 / defence 0.728. League average goals — home 1.593 / away 1.367. AZ Alkmaar's defence strength of 0.728 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 27 Heracles games / 61 AZ Alkmaar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 20% | Draw 24% | AZ Alkmaar 56%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 5.00 | Draw 4.17 | AZ Alkmaar 1.79. The model has a clear lean to AZ Alkmaar (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AZ Alkmaar at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Heracles 60% | AZ Alkmaar 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Erve Asito • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 Apr 2024, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 20% | Draw 24% | AZ Alkmaar 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 58% | xG Heracles 1.09 / AZ Alkmaar 1.95 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 0.944 / def 1.334 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.068 / def 0.728 | league avg home 1.593 / away 1.367 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
1.95
AZ Alkmaar xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar kicked off at 17:45 on Wednesday 3 April 2024 at Erve Asito.
What was the final score in Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar?
Heracles 5 - 0 AZ Alkmaar.
Where is Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar being played?
The match is being played at Erve Asito.
What competition is Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar part of?
Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 20% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 56% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Heracles and AZ Alkmaar will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and AZ Alkmaar?
Record (3 meetings): Heracles 1W | Draws 1 | AZ Alkmaar 1W.
What form are Heracles and AZ Alkmaar in?
Heracles (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Heracles's attack at 0.94x the league average against AZ Alkmaar's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, AZ Alkmaar's attack versus Heracles's defence, projects 1.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
20%
5.08
24%
4.12
56%
1.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Heracles xG
Total xG
3.04
1.95
AZ Alkmaar xG
5.08
20%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
1.78
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
14%
7.02
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
3%
35.64
19%
5.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 9.3 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Heracles and AZ Alkmaar expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Heracles and 1.95 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Heracles come into this having played 61 games, going 31W 8D 22L for 1.66 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AZ Alkmaar sit at 1.95 PPG from 61 outings (35W 14D 12L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for AZ Alkmaar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Heracles on 1.66 PPG, AZ Alkmaar on 1.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Heracles's home form reads 19W 5D 6L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.07 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.66 PPG overall — Heracles are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, AZ Alkmaar have taken 1.93 points per game from 30 outings (17W 7D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Heracles are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; AZ Alkmaar are on 2.02 scored and 0.95 conceded. Heracles's scoring rate against AZ Alkmaar's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: AZ Alkmaar in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Blended
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and AZ Alkmaar in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 31W 8D 22L in their last 61 games (1.66 PPG), while AZ Alkmaar have gone 35W 14D 12L in their last 61 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or AZ Alkmaar away?
Heracles's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 2.07 PPG; AZ Alkmaar away: 1.93 PPG.
Have Heracles or AZ Alkmaar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Heracles have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, AZ Alkmaar in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AZ Alkmaar have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Apr 2024, when Heracles won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Heracles's record when hosting AZ Alkmaar specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Heracles
1
Draws
4
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and AZ Alkmaar?
From 8 meetings on record, Heracles have won 3, AZ Alkmaar have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and AZ Alkmaar last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when AZ Alkmaar 4-0 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 57%, AZ Alkmaar 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Heracles and 60% for AZ Alkmaar. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AZ Alkmaar in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / AZ Alkmaar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play AZ Alkmaar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Heracles's games and 57% of AZ Alkmaar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Heracles's matches and 60% of AZ Alkmaar's.
Do Heracles and AZ Alkmaar tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, AZ Alkmaar in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Heracles run riot with a 5-0 hammering of AZ Alkmaar.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heracles beat AZ Alkmaar 5-0 at Erve Asito, Regular Season - 28, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.09 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.95 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Heracles beat their projection by 3.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AZ Alkmaar landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 0.94 / defence 1.33 against AZ Alkmaar attack 1.07 / defence 0.73, drawn from 27/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 20% | Draw 24% | AZ Alkmaar 56%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Heracles win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 70%, AZ Alkmaar 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Heracles 1.66 PPG, AZ Alkmaar 1.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Heracles win broke the near-deadlock. Heracles (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.