Vitesse 0-3 NEC Nijmegen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vitesse vs NEC Nijmegen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vitesse host NEC Nijmegen at GelreDome in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 7 April 2024 at 11:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Vitesse — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Vitesse's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at GelreDome this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, NEC Nijmegen have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
NEC Nijmegen's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour NEC Nijmegen — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Vitesse have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 5 past contests while NEC Nijmegen have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2023, ended 3–1 with Vitesse winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Vitesse and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Vitesse in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
NEC Nijmegen in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitesse 50% versus NEC Nijmegen 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitesse 53% | NEC Nijmegen 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitesse 1.14 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitesse attack 0.705 / defence 1.235 | NEC Nijmegen attack 1.151 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.662 / away 1.323. Vitesse's attack strength of 0.705 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 62 Vitesse games / 62 NEC Nijmegen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitesse 21% | Draw 27% | NEC Nijmegen 53%. Fair-value odds: Vitesse 4.76 | Draw 3.70 | NEC Nijmegen 1.89. NEC Nijmegen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.14 / 1.88) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
Vitesse dominate the H2H record, yet NEC Nijmegen are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, NEC Nijmegen are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NEC Nijmegen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Vitesse 70% | NEC Nijmegen 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitesse vs NEC Nijmegen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: GelreDome • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Apr 2024, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitesse 21% | Draw 27% | NEC Nijmegen 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Vitesse 1.14 / NEC Nijmegen 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: Vitesse attack 0.705 / def 1.235 | NEC Nijmegen attack 1.151 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.662 / away 1.323 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Vitesse xG
Expected Goals
1.88
NEC Nijmegen xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitesse vs NEC Nijmegen kick off?
Vitesse vs NEC Nijmegen kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 7 April 2024 at GelreDome.
What was the final score in Vitesse vs NEC Nijmegen?
Vitesse 0 - 3 NEC Nijmegen.
Where is Vitesse vs NEC Nijmegen being played?
The match is being played at GelreDome.
What competition is Vitesse vs NEC Nijmegen part of?
Vitesse vs NEC Nijmegen is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Vitesse vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our statistical model gives Vitesse a 21% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen a 53% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitesse vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Vitesse and NEC Nijmegen will score (BTTS).
Will Vitesse vs NEC Nijmegen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and NEC Nijmegen?
Record (5 meetings): Vitesse 4W | Draws 1 | NEC Nijmegen 0W.
What form are Vitesse and NEC Nijmegen in?
Vitesse (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Vitesse's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against NEC Nijmegen's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. The same calculation in reverse, NEC Nijmegen's attack versus Vitesse's defence, projects 1.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
21%
4.80
27%
3.75
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Vitesse xG
Total xG
3.02
1.88
NEC Nijmegen xG
4.80
21%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
15%
6.55
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
3%
31.46
17%
5.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 9.2 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitesse vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Vitesse and NEC Nijmegen expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Vitesse and 1.88 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitesse vs NEC Nijmegen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Vitesse come into this having played 62 games, going 14W 15D 33L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, NEC Nijmegen sit at 1.32 PPG from 62 outings (19W 25D 18L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-D across their last five.
NEC Nijmegen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of Vitesse — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Vitesse's home form reads 6W 11D 14L across 31 games on their own ground, a 0.94 PPG return.
Away from home, NEC Nijmegen have taken 1.19 points per game from 31 outings (8W 13D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Vitesse are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; NEC Nijmegen are on 1.55 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitesse
Current Season
NEC Nijmegen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitesse and NEC Nijmegen in coming into this match?
Vitesse have gone 14W 15D 33L in their last 62 games (0.92 PPG), while NEC Nijmegen have gone 19W 25D 18L in their last 62 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitesse at home or NEC Nijmegen away?
NEC Nijmegen's away record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitesse at home: 0.94 PPG; NEC Nijmegen away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vitesse and NEC Nijmegen runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2022, when Vitesse won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vitesse's record when hosting NEC Nijmegen specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Vitesse
1
Draws
1
NEC Nijmegen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and NEC Nijmegen?
From 6 meetings on record, Vitesse have won 4, NEC Nijmegen have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vitesse and NEC Nijmegen last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2024, when Vitesse 0-3 NEC Nijmegen.
Who has won more matches between Vitesse and NEC Nijmegen?
Vitesse have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitesse 52%, NEC Nijmegen 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Vitesse) and 45% (NEC Nijmegen).
On the defensive side: Vitesse have failed to score in 32% of games; NEC Nijmegen in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitesse home games / NEC Nijmegen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitesse play NEC Nijmegen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Vitesse's recent matches and 48% of NEC Nijmegen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vitesse vs NEC Nijmegen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Vitesse's recent games and 45% of NEC Nijmegen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vitesse and NEC Nijmegen tend to score early?
Vitesse have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, NEC Nijmegen in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant NEC Nijmegen run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Vitesse.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEC Nijmegen beat Vitesse 0-3 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 29, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.14 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.88 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Vitesse fell 1.1 short of their projected output. NEC Nijmegen outscored their 1.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.70 / defence 1.24 against NEC Nijmegen attack 1.15 / defence 0.98, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitesse 21% | Draw 27% | NEC Nijmegen 53%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 53%, NEC Nijmegen 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitesse's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, NEC Nijmegen arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.92. Form held, and they took the win. Vitesse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.