PEC Zwolle 2-1 Excelsior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Excelsior at 38%, yet in-form PEC Zwolle provide a compelling counter-argument — this PEC Zwolle vs Excelsior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
PEC Zwolle host Excelsior at MAC³PARK Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 April 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
PEC Zwolle — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
PEC Zwolle's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at MAC³PARK Stadion this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Excelsior stand at 0W 2D 8L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Excelsior's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 3.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, PEC Zwolle have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (0.80 vs 0.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. PEC Zwolle register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Excelsior in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for PEC Zwolle, 0 for Excelsior and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2023, ended 4–2 with PEC Zwolle winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
PEC Zwolle in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Excelsior in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 60% versus Excelsior 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 63% | Excelsior 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.75 xG and Excelsior 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.660 / defence 1.440 | Excelsior attack 0.936 / defence 1.596. League average goals — home 1.662 / away 1.335. PEC Zwolle's attack strength of 0.660 is below the league average — the 1.75 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Excelsior bring a strong defensive rating of 1.596 — this is suppressing PEC Zwolle's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 PEC Zwolle games / 62 Excelsior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 36% | Draw 26% | Excelsior 38%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Excelsior 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.80) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Excelsior as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form PEC Zwolle (0.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Excelsior offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.55 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: PEC Zwolle 60% | Excelsior 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs Excelsior | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Apr 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 36% | Draw 26% | Excelsior 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 71% | xG PEC Zwolle 1.75 / Excelsior 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.660 / def 1.440 | Excelsior attack 0.936 / def 1.596 | league avg home 1.662 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Excelsior xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs Excelsior kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs Excelsior kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 6 April 2024 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs Excelsior?
PEC Zwolle 2 - 1 Excelsior.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs Excelsior being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs Excelsior part of?
PEC Zwolle vs Excelsior is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs Excelsior?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 36% chance of winning, Excelsior a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Excelsior?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both PEC Zwolle and Excelsior will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs Excelsior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Excelsior?
Record (1 meetings): PEC Zwolle 1W | Draws 0 | Excelsior 0W.
What form are PEC Zwolle and Excelsior in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Excelsior (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates PEC Zwolle's attack at 0.66x the league average against Excelsior's defence at 1.60x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Excelsior's attack versus PEC Zwolle's defence, projects 1.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.1%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
36%
2.77
26%
3.89
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
3.55
1.80
Excelsior xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.42
Clean Sheet
17%
6.04
17%
5.76
Win to Nil
6%
16.71
7%
15.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.0 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.9 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Excelsior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and Excelsior expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.80 for Excelsior, a combined total of 3.55.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs Excelsior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
PEC Zwolle's recent record stands at 30W 11D 21L from 62 games, a 1.63 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five.
Excelsior, meanwhile, have gone 13W 15D 34L across 62 games — 0.87 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours PEC Zwolle by 0.76 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Excelsior heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, PEC Zwolle have managed 16W 5D 10L from 31 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Excelsior's away record stands at 3W 6D 22L across 31 trips, a 0.48 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PEC Zwolle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
PEC Zwolle are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Excelsior are on 1.15 scored and 2.15 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Current Season
Excelsior
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and Excelsior in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 30W 11D 21L in their last 62 games (1.63 PPG), while Excelsior have gone 13W 15D 34L in their last 62 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or Excelsior away?
PEC Zwolle's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 1.71 PPG; Excelsior away: 0.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
PEC Zwolle's record when hosting Excelsior specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
PEC Zwolle
1
Draws
1
Excelsior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Excelsior?
From 4 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 2, Excelsior have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and Excelsior last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when PEC Zwolle 2-2 Excelsior.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and Excelsior?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 55%, Excelsior 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for PEC Zwolle and 71% for Excelsior. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PEC Zwolle keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Excelsior in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / Excelsior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play Excelsior?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of PEC Zwolle's recent matches and 52% of Excelsior's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PEC Zwolle vs Excelsior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of PEC Zwolle's matches and 71% of Excelsior's.
Do PEC Zwolle and Excelsior tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Excelsior in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as PEC Zwolle defy the odds to beat Excelsior 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle beat Excelsior 2-1 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.75 xG and Excelsior 1.80 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.66 / defence 1.44 against Excelsior attack 0.94 / defence 1.60, drawn from 28/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 36% | Draw 26% | Excelsior 38%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual PEC Zwolle win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 63%, Excelsior 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Excelsior's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, PEC Zwolle arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.