PSV Eindhoven 5-1 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PSV Eindhoven at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
PSV Eindhoven and AZ Alkmaar meet at Philips Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 April 2024 at 17:45 UTC.
Current Form
PSV Eindhoven's overall Eredivisie record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
PSV Eindhoven's home record at Philips Stadion: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Philips Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.30 — PSV Eindhoven are significantly better at Philips Stadion than their overall form suggests.
AZ Alkmaar (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, AZ Alkmaar have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.30 PPG for PSV Eindhoven against 1.80 for AZ Alkmaar. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for PSV Eindhoven, 2 for AZ Alkmaar and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Dec 2023, ended 4–0 with PSV Eindhoven winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
PSV Eindhoven half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
AZ Alkmaar half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PSV Eindhoven 52% versus AZ Alkmaar 55%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (PSV Eindhoven 69% | AZ Alkmaar 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PSV Eindhoven 1.98 xG and AZ Alkmaar 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PSV Eindhoven attack 1.251 / defence 0.697 | AZ Alkmaar attack 0.963 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.638 / away 1.335. PSV Eindhoven carry an above-average attack strength of 1.251 — their λ of 1.98 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. PSV Eindhoven's defence rating of 0.697 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 62 PSV Eindhoven games / 62 AZ Alkmaar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PSV Eindhoven 61% | Draw 25% | AZ Alkmaar 14%. Fair-value odds: PSV Eindhoven 1.64 | Draw 4.00 | AZ Alkmaar 7.14. The model has a clear lean to PSV Eindhoven (61%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: PSV Eindhoven 50% | AZ Alkmaar 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Philips Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Apr 2024, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PSV Eindhoven 61% | Draw 25% | AZ Alkmaar 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 53% | xG PSV Eindhoven 1.98 / AZ Alkmaar 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: PSV Eindhoven attack 1.251 / def 0.697 | AZ Alkmaar attack 0.963 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.638 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
PSV Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
0.90
AZ Alkmaar xG
53%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Philips Stadion.
What was the final score in PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar?
PSV Eindhoven 5 - 1 AZ Alkmaar.
Where is PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar being played?
The match is being played at Philips Stadion.
What competition is PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar part of?
PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our statistical model gives PSV Eindhoven a 61% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 14% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both PSV Eindhoven and AZ Alkmaar will score (BTTS).
Will PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between PSV Eindhoven and AZ Alkmaar?
Record (5 meetings): PSV Eindhoven 3W | Draws 0 | AZ Alkmaar 2W.
What form are PSV Eindhoven and AZ Alkmaar in?
PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PSV Eindhoven's attack at 1.25x the league average against AZ Alkmaar's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.98 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AZ Alkmaar's attack (0.96x) against PSV Eindhoven's defence (0.70x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.0%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
61%
1.65
25%
3.99
14%
6.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
PSV Eindhoven xG
Total xG
2.87
0.90
AZ Alkmaar xG
1.65
61%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
6.99
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
14%
7.23
Win to Nil
25%
4.04
2%
50.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.2 | 10.0 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are PSV Eindhoven and AZ Alkmaar expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for PSV Eindhoven and 0.90 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 62 outings, PSV Eindhoven have picked up 2.42 PPG on a 47W 9D 6L record — D-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
AZ Alkmaar's form line: 35W 14D 13L from 62 games, 1.92 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-L.
Put side by side, PSV Eindhoven are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against AZ Alkmaar.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, PSV Eindhoven have posted 2.70 PPG from 30 outings (26W 3D 1L).
On the road, AZ Alkmaar have gone 16W 7D 7L from 30 away games — 1.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PSV Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PSV Eindhoven are averaging 2.79 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; AZ Alkmaar are on 1.98 scored and 1.02 conceded. AZ Alkmaar's attacking output running into PSV Eindhoven's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: PSV Eindhoven have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; AZ Alkmaar in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PSV Eindhoven
Current Season
AZ Alkmaar
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PSV Eindhoven and AZ Alkmaar in coming into this match?
PSV Eindhoven have gone 47W 9D 6L in their last 62 games (2.42 PPG), while AZ Alkmaar have gone 35W 14D 13L in their last 62 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PSV Eindhoven at home or AZ Alkmaar away?
PSV Eindhoven's home record (2.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PSV Eindhoven at home: 2.70 PPG; AZ Alkmaar away: 1.83 PPG.
Have PSV Eindhoven or AZ Alkmaar been keeping clean sheets recently?
PSV Eindhoven have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, AZ Alkmaar in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
PSV Eindhoven have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PSV Eindhoven won 0-4 on 17 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PSV Eindhoven have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AZ Alkmaar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
PSV Eindhoven
1
Draws
2
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PSV Eindhoven and AZ Alkmaar?
From 10 meetings on record, PSV Eindhoven have won 7, AZ Alkmaar have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PSV Eindhoven and AZ Alkmaar last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when PSV Eindhoven 2-1 AZ Alkmaar.
Who has won more matches between PSV Eindhoven and AZ Alkmaar?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time.
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PSV Eindhoven 43%, AZ Alkmaar 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for PSV Eindhoven and 60% for AZ Alkmaar. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PSV Eindhoven keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; AZ Alkmaar in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PSV Eindhoven home games / AZ Alkmaar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PSV Eindhoven play AZ Alkmaar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of PSV Eindhoven's recent matches and 53% of AZ Alkmaar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of PSV Eindhoven's matches and 60% of AZ Alkmaar's.
Do PSV Eindhoven and AZ Alkmaar tend to score early?
PSV Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, AZ Alkmaar in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PSV Eindhoven run riot with a 5-1 hammering of AZ Alkmaar.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PSV Eindhoven beat AZ Alkmaar 5-1 at Philips Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PSV Eindhoven 1.98 xG and AZ Alkmaar 0.90 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. PSV Eindhoven beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PSV Eindhoven attack 1.25 / defence 0.70 against AZ Alkmaar attack 0.96 / defence 0.97, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PSV Eindhoven 61% | Draw 25% | AZ Alkmaar 14%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PSV Eindhoven 69%, AZ Alkmaar 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 1.92. That form edge translated into the three points. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 3.00 average — above their attacking norm. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.