Excelsior 4-0 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Excelsior at 37%, yet in-form FC Volendam provide a compelling counter-argument — this Excelsior vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Excelsior and FC Volendam meet at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Friday 12 April 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Excelsior (all games): 0W 1D 9L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Excelsior's home record at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.10 — Excelsior are significantly better at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion than their overall form suggests.
FC Volendam's overall Eredivisie record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
FC Volendam arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (0.70 vs 0.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Excelsior register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, FC Volendam in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Excelsior, 2 for FC Volendam and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2023, ended 1–3 with FC Volendam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Excelsior — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
FC Volendam — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Excelsior 56% versus FC Volendam 64%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Excelsior 65% | FC Volendam 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.43 xG and FC Volendam 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 0.764 / defence 1.119 | FC Volendam attack 0.885 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.695 / away 1.340. Excelsior's attack strength of 0.764 is below the league average — the 1.43 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 63 Excelsior games / 63 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 37% | Draw 31% | FC Volendam 32%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | FC Volendam 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Excelsior are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Volendam (0.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Excelsior if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Excelsior 70% | FC Volendam 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 12 Apr 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 37% | Draw 31% | FC Volendam 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Excelsior 1.43 / FC Volendam 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 0.764 / def 1.119 | FC Volendam attack 0.885 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.695 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
1.33
FC Volendam xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs FC Volendam kick off?
Excelsior vs FC Volendam kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 12 April 2024 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs FC Volendam?
Excelsior 4 - 0 FC Volendam.
Where is Excelsior vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs FC Volendam part of?
Excelsior vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 37% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Excelsior and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and FC Volendam?
Record (5 meetings): Excelsior 2W | Draws 1 | FC Volendam 2W.
What form are Excelsior and FC Volendam in?
Excelsior (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. FC Volendam (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.70 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Excelsior's attack at 0.76x the league average against FC Volendam's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Volendam's attack (0.89x) against Excelsior's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
37%
2.69
31%
3.28
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Excelsior xG
Total xG
2.76
1.33
FC Volendam xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
10%
10.14
8%
12.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Excelsior and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.33 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs FC Volendam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 63 outings, Excelsior have picked up 0.86 PPG on a 13W 15D 35L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
FC Volendam's form line: 14W 13D 36L from 63 games, 0.87 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.86 PPG for Excelsior against 0.87 for FC Volendam. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Excelsior have posted 1.26 PPG from 31 outings (10W 9D 12L). That's noticeably better than their 0.86 PPG overall — Excelsior are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 2W 10D 19L from 31 away games — 0.52 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Excelsior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Excelsior are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.14 scored and 2.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 63%.
Last 63 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Current Season
FC Volendam
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 13W 15D 35L in their last 63 games (0.86 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 14W 13D 36L in their last 63 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or FC Volendam away?
Excelsior's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.26 PPG; FC Volendam away: 0.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Excelsior won 4-0 on 12 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Excelsior have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Volendam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Excelsior
3
Draws
2
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and FC Volendam?
From 10 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 5, FC Volendam have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Excelsior 1-1 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and FC Volendam?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Excelsior see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior 58%, FC Volendam 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Excelsior and 64% for FC Volendam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Excelsior have failed to score in 29% of games; FC Volendam in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Excelsior's games and 68% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Excelsior vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Excelsior's matches and 64% of FC Volendam's.
Do Excelsior and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Excelsior run riot with a 4-0 hammering of FC Volendam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior beat FC Volendam 4-0 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.43 xG and FC Volendam 1.33 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Excelsior beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Volendam landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 0.76 / defence 1.12 against FC Volendam attack 0.89 / defence 1.10, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 37% | Draw 31% | FC Volendam 32%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 65%, FC Volendam 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Volendam's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Excelsior 0.86 PPG, FC Volendam 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Excelsior win broke the near-deadlock. Excelsior (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.