FC Volendam 0-0 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Feyenoord (87%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FC Volendam face Feyenoord.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Feyenoord travel to Kras Stadion to take on FC Volendam. The game is scheduled for Thursday 4 April 2024, 17:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Volendam stand at 0W 4D 6L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Volendam's home record at Kras Stadion: 2W 0D 8L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game.
Feyenoord — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Feyenoord's form when playing away from home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Feyenoord's 2.60 PPG return is 2.20 points per game ahead of FC Volendam's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Feyenoord have the better historical record — 3 wins from 3 previous contests against 0 for FC Volendam.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2023, ended 1–3 with Feyenoord winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Feyenoord have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
FC Volendam in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Feyenoord in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 64% and Feyenoord 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Volendam 67% | Feyenoord 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 0.82 xG and Feyenoord 3.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 0.633 / defence 1.826 | Feyenoord attack 1.450 / defence 0.773. League average goals — home 1.669 / away 1.364. FC Volendam's attack strength of 0.633 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Feyenoord's defence strength of 0.773 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Feyenoord have an above-average attack strength of 1.450 — the away xG of 3.61 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 61 FC Volendam games / 61 Feyenoord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 4% | Draw 9% | Feyenoord 87%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 25.00 | Draw 11.11 | Feyenoord 1.15. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (87%) — a 83pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 82% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 4.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 82% — a total xG of 4.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Feyenoord are the pick at 87% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.43 combined xG gives a 82% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: FC Volendam 40% | Feyenoord 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Thursday 4 Apr 2024, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 4% | Draw 9% | Feyenoord 87% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 82% | BTTS 55% | xG FC Volendam 0.82 / Feyenoord 3.61 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 0.633 / def 1.826 | Feyenoord attack 1.450 / def 0.773 | league avg home 1.669 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (87%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
3.61
Feyenoord xG
55%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Feyenoord kick off?
FC Volendam vs Feyenoord kicked off at 17:45 on Thursday 4 April 2024 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs Feyenoord?
FC Volendam 0 - 0 Feyenoord.
Where is FC Volendam vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Feyenoord part of?
FC Volendam vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 4% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 87% chance, and a 9% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both FC Volendam and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 82%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Feyenoord?
Record (3 meetings): FC Volendam 0W | Draws 0 | Feyenoord 3W.
What form are FC Volendam and Feyenoord in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Feyenoord (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Volendam's attack rating (0.63) and Feyenoord's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 0.82 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Feyenoord's attack versus FC Volendam's defence, projects 3.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-3 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.4%. Close behind: 0-4 (8.5%), 0-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
4%
24.15
9%
10.87
87%
1.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 3
9.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 4
8.5%
Away win
0 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
4.43
3.61
Feyenoord xG
24.15
4%
Home win
10.87
9%
Draw
1.15
87%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
82%
Over 2.5
1.22
18%
Under 2.5
5.56
65%
Over 3.5
1.54
35%
Under 3.5
2.86
45%
Over 4.5
2.22
55%
Under 4.5
1.82
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
3%
36.97
44%
2.26
Win to Nil
0%
–
38%
2.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.2 | 4.3 | 7.8 | 9.4 | 8.5 | 6.1 |
| 1 | 1.0 | 3.5 | 6.4 | 7.7 | 6.9 | 5.0 |
| 2 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 2.0 |
| 3 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 0-3 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for FC Volendam and 3.61 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 4.43.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Feyenoord?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 87%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Volendam's recent record stands at 13W 12D 36L from 61 games, a 0.84 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Feyenoord, meanwhile, have gone 45W 12D 4L across 61 games — 2.41 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Feyenoord by 1.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Volendam heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Volendam have managed 11W 2D 17L from 30 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Feyenoord's away record stands at 23W 5D 2L across 30 trips, a 2.47 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Volendam are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 2.28 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.48 scored and 0.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Feyenoord in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Blended
Feyenoord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 13W 12D 36L in their last 61 games (0.84 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 45W 12D 4L in their last 61 (2.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Feyenoord away?
Feyenoord's away record (2.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 1.17 PPG; Feyenoord away: 2.47 PPG.
Have FC Volendam or Feyenoord been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Volendam have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Feyenoord in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Volendam and Feyenoord runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Volendam's record when hosting Feyenoord specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
FC Volendam
2
Draws
4
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Feyenoord?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 0, Feyenoord have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when FC Volendam 0-0 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and Feyenoord?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 60%, Feyenoord 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for FC Volendam and 70% for Feyenoord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord in 33%; FC Volendam have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Feyenoord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of FC Volendam's games and 67% of Feyenoord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs Feyenoord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of FC Volendam's matches and 70% of Feyenoord's.
Do FC Volendam and Feyenoord tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Feyenoord in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC Volendam's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 28, as FC Volendam and Feyenoord drew 0-0 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 0.82 xG and Feyenoord 3.61 xG, a combined 4.43. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC Volendam fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Feyenoord landed 3.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 0.63 / defence 1.83 against Feyenoord attack 1.45 / defence 0.77, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 4% | Draw 9% | Feyenoord 87%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 87%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 9% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 82%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 94% and missed. Over 3.5 was 65% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 67%, Feyenoord 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Feyenoord's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.41 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.27 average — tighter than their form line. Feyenoord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.