🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates FC Volendam at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Volendam vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees NAC Breda travel to Kras Stadion to take on FC Volendam. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 November 2025, 17:45 UTC.

Form Guide

FC Volendam — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.

FC Volendam's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Kras Stadion this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — FC Volendam are significantly better at Kras Stadion than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, NAC Breda stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.

NAC Breda's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC Volendam at 0.90 PPG versus NAC Breda's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Volendam register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, NAC Breda in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, FC Volendam have won 1, NAC Breda 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

FC Volendam in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.

NAC Breda in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 67% and NAC Breda 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Volendam 76% | NAC Breda 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 1.79 xG and NAC Breda 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 0.891 / defence 0.977 | NAC Breda attack 0.931 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.740 / away 1.519. Data: 11 FC Volendam games / 45 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FC Volendam 47% | Draw 23% | NAC Breda 30%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 2.13 | Draw 4.35 | NAC Breda 3.33. FC Volendam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Volendam at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Volendam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 70% | NAC Breda 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights