🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

AZ Alkmaar and PSV Eindhoven meet at AFAS Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 9 November 2025 at 15:45 UTC.

Current Form

AZ Alkmaar's overall Eredivisie record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at AFAS Stadion, AZ Alkmaar have gone 6W 4D 0L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

PSV Eindhoven (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PSV Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.

PSV Eindhoven's away record: 10W 0D 0L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 3.00 exceeds their overall 2.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.10 PPG for AZ Alkmaar against 2.50 for PSV Eindhoven. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — AZ Alkmaar register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, PSV Eindhoven in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head ledger leans to PSV Eindhoven, who have claimed 5 wins from 8 meetings compared to 2 for the hosts, with 1 draws.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Jan 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. PSV Eindhoven have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading

AZ Alkmaar half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

PSV Eindhoven half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 64%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — AZ Alkmaar 64% and PSV Eindhoven 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (AZ Alkmaar 67% | PSV Eindhoven 84%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 2.03 xG and PSV Eindhoven 2.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.326 / defence 1.001 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.645 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.742 / away 1.458. AZ Alkmaar carry an above-average attack strength of 1.326 — their λ of 2.03 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. PSV Eindhoven have an above-average attack strength of 1.645 — the away xG of 2.40 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 AZ Alkmaar games / 45 PSV Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 34% | Draw 19% | PSV Eindhoven 47%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 2.94 | Draw 5.26 | PSV Eindhoven 2.13. PSV Eindhoven hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (19%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 82% | BTTS probability 79% | Total xG 4.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 82% — a total xG of 4.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 79% reflects that both xG figures (2.03 / 2.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 4.43 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 82% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 4.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 79% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: AZ Alkmaar 90% | PSV Eindhoven 70% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights