🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Sparta Rotterdam at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 12 as PEC Zwolle welcome Sparta Rotterdam to MAC³PARK Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 November 2025 at 20:00 UTC.

Form Guide

PEC Zwolle — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.

PEC Zwolle's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at MAC³PARK Stadion this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — PEC Zwolle are significantly better at MAC³PARK Stadion than their overall form suggests.

Across all Eredivisie games this season, Sparta Rotterdam have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Sparta Rotterdam's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Sparta Rotterdam — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, PEC Zwolle have won 2, Sparta Rotterdam 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

PEC Zwolle in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

Sparta Rotterdam in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 56% versus Sparta Rotterdam 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 49% | Sparta Rotterdam 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.07 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.704 / defence 1.105 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.961 / defence 0.873. League average goals — home 1.748 / away 1.500. PEC Zwolle's attack strength of 0.704 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 45 PEC Zwolle games / 45 Sparta Rotterdam games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 26% | Draw 25% | Sparta Rotterdam 49%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 3.85 | Draw 4.00 | Sparta Rotterdam 2.04. Sparta Rotterdam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Sparta Rotterdam are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sparta Rotterdam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data: PEC Zwolle 30% | Sparta Rotterdam 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights