NEC Nijmegen 2-0 Groningen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates NEC Nijmegen at 54%, yet in-form Groningen provide a compelling counter-argument — this NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Groningen travel to Goffertstadion to take on NEC Nijmegen. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 November 2025, 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
NEC Nijmegen — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, NEC Nijmegen have posted 5W 3D 2L at Goffertstadion — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — NEC Nijmegen are significantly better at Goffertstadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Groningen have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Groningen's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Groningen — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for NEC Nijmegen, 2 for Groningen and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2025, ended 1–2 with Groningen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
NEC Nijmegen trading profile (45 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Groningen trading profile (45 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NEC Nijmegen 53% versus Groningen 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEC Nijmegen 64% | Groningen 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 2.46 xG and Groningen 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.414 / defence 1.110 | Groningen attack 1.059 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.747 / away 1.477. NEC Nijmegen carry an above-average attack strength of 1.414 — their λ of 2.46 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 45 NEC Nijmegen games / 45 Groningen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 54% | Draw 19% | Groningen 27%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 1.85 | Draw 5.26 | Groningen 3.70. NEC Nijmegen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (19%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 75% | Total xG 4.19. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.19 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% reflects that both xG figures (2.46 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Groningen (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.19 combined xG gives a 79% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 75% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: NEC Nijmegen 70% | Groningen 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Goffertstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Nov 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 54% | Draw 19% | Groningen 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 75% | xG NEC Nijmegen 2.46 / Groningen 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.414 / def 1.110 | Groningen attack 1.059 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.747 / away 1.477 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.46
NEC Nijmegen xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Groningen xG
75%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen kick off?
NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 9 November 2025 at Goffertstadion.
What was the final score in NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen?
NEC Nijmegen 2 - 0 Groningen.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at Goffertstadion.
What competition is NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen part of?
NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives NEC Nijmegen a 54% chance of winning, Groningen a 27% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 75% probability that both NEC Nijmegen and Groningen will score (BTTS).
Will NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Groningen?
Record (6 meetings): NEC Nijmegen 3W | Draws 1 | Groningen 2W.
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Groningen in?
NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. Groningen (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
NEC Nijmegen's attacking strength (1.41x league average) is weighed against Groningen's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.46. The same calculation in reverse, Groningen's attack versus NEC Nijmegen's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 7.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.3%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
54%
1.86
19%
5.23
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
3 – 1
6.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.46
NEC Nijmegen xG
Total xG
4.19
1.74
Groningen xG
1.86
54%
Home win
5.23
19%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
60%
Over 3.5
1.67
40%
Under 3.5
2.50
41%
Over 4.5
2.44
59%
Under 4.5
1.69
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
75%
BTTS Yes
1.33
25%
BTTS No
4.05
Clean Sheet
18%
5.68
9%
11.66
Win to Nil
9%
10.56
2%
43.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.9 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.9%.
How many goals are NEC Nijmegen and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 2.46 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.74 for Groningen, a combined total of 4.19.
How confident is the prediction model for NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 45 outings, NEC Nijmegen have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 16W 10D 19L record — W-D-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Groningen's form line: 16W 10D 19L from 45 games, 1.29 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-D. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: NEC Nijmegen on 1.29 PPG, Groningen on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, NEC Nijmegen have posted 1.62 PPG from 21 outings (9W 7D 5L).
On the road, Groningen have gone 4W 3D 14L from 21 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Groningen's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NEC Nijmegen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
NEC Nijmegen are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.27 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
Groningen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Groningen in coming into this match?
NEC Nijmegen have gone 16W 10D 19L in their last 45 games (1.29 PPG), while Groningen have gone 16W 10D 19L in their last 45 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEC Nijmegen at home or Groningen away?
NEC Nijmegen's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEC Nijmegen at home: 1.62 PPG; Groningen away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between NEC Nijmegen and Groningen runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Nov 2024, when NEC Nijmegen won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NEC Nijmegen's record when hosting Groningen specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
NEC Nijmegen
1
Draws
3
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Groningen?
From 8 meetings on record, NEC Nijmegen have won 4, Groningen have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NEC Nijmegen and Groningen last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Groningen 2-1 NEC Nijmegen.
Who has won more matches between NEC Nijmegen and Groningen?
NEC Nijmegen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — NEC Nijmegen at 71%, Groningen at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 81% for NEC Nijmegen and 62% for Groningen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Groningen in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEC Nijmegen home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEC Nijmegen play Groningen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of NEC Nijmegen's games and 62% of Groningen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of NEC Nijmegen's matches and 62% of Groningen's.
Do NEC Nijmegen and Groningen tend to score early?
NEC Nijmegen have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Groningen in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NEC Nijmegen cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Groningen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEC Nijmegen beat Groningen 2-0 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 2.46 xG and Groningen 1.74 xG, a combined 4.19. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Groningen landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 1.41 / defence 1.11 against Groningen attack 1.06 / defence 0.99, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 54% | Draw 19% | Groningen 27%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 60% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 64%, Groningen 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Groningen's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NEC Nijmegen 1.29 PPG, Groningen 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NEC Nijmegen win broke the near-deadlock. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Groningen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.