FC Volendam 1-1 Twente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Twente at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Volendam vs Twente encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 13 as FC Volendam welcome Twente to Kras Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 November 2025 at 17:45 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Volendam — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Volendam's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Kras Stadion this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — FC Volendam are significantly better at Kras Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Twente stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Twente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Twente's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Twente's 1.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of FC Volendam's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Volendam register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Twente in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for FC Volendam, 3 for Twente and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2024, ended 2–7 with Twente winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
FC Volendam in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Twente in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 67% and Twente 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Volendam 77% | Twente 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 1.45 xG and Twente 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 0.907 / defence 0.968 | Twente attack 1.150 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.731 / away 1.458. Data: 12 FC Volendam games / 46 Twente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 34% | Draw 24% | Twente 42%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 2.94 | Draw 4.17 | Twente 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.45 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Twente at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Twente offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.07 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 80% | Twente 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Twente | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 34% | Draw 24% | Twente 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG FC Volendam 1.45 / Twente 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 0.907 / def 0.968 | Twente attack 1.150 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.731 / away 1.458 • Poisson stance: Twente (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Twente xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Twente kick off?
FC Volendam vs Twente kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs Twente?
FC Volendam 1 - 1 Twente.
Where is FC Volendam vs Twente being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Twente part of?
FC Volendam vs Twente is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Twente?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 34% chance of winning, Twente a 42% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Twente the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Twente?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both FC Volendam and Twente will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Twente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Twente?
Record (4 meetings): FC Volendam 1W | Draws 0 | Twente 3W.
What form are FC Volendam and Twente in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Twente (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC Volendam's attack at 0.91x the league average against Twente's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Twente's attack versus FC Volendam's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Twente Win
34%
2.92
24%
4.19
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.07
1.62
Twente xG
2.92
34%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
20%
5.07
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
7%
14.81
10%
10.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.9 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.9 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Twente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Twente expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.62 for Twente, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Twente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, FC Volendam have picked up 1.98 PPG on a 29W 8D 11L record — L-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Twente's form line: 20W 13D 15L from 48 games, 1.52 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-D. The sample for Twente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC Volendam are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Twente.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC Volendam have posted 2.33 PPG from 24 outings (18W 2D 4L).
On the road, Twente have gone 7W 7D 10L from 24 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Volendam are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Twente are on 1.81 scored and 1.50 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Twente in 65%.
Last 48 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Blended
Twente
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Twente in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 29W 8D 11L in their last 48 games (1.98 PPG), while Twente have gone 20W 13D 15L in their last 48 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Twente away?
FC Volendam's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 2.33 PPG; Twente away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 May 2024, when Twente won 7-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Volendam's record when hosting Twente specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
FC Volendam
1
Draws
4
Twente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Twente?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 1, Twente have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Twente last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Twente 2-1 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and Twente?
Twente have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Twente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Volendam at 62%, Twente at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for FC Volendam and 62% for Twente. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Twente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Twente?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of FC Volendam's games and 71% of Twente's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs Twente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of FC Volendam's matches and 62% of Twente's.
Do FC Volendam and Twente tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Twente in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Volendam and Twente share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam and Twente finished level at 1-1 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.45 xG and Twente 1.62 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 0.91 / defence 0.97 against Twente attack 1.15 / defence 0.92, drawn from 12/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 34% | Draw 24% | Twente 42%, with Twente to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 77%, Twente 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Twente's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.52. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.54 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.