Feyenoord 3-1 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Feyenoord (69%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Feyenoord face FC Volendam.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees FC Volendam travel to De Kuip to take on Feyenoord. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 November 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Feyenoord stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Feyenoord have posted 8W 0D 2L at De Kuip — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at De Kuip.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, FC Volendam have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
On current form, Feyenoord have the edge — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
Feyenoord hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 4 previous encounters compared to 0 for FC Volendam, with 1 draws in between.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The historical record gives Feyenoord a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Feyenoord trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
FC Volendam trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Feyenoord 57% and FC Volendam 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Feyenoord 59% | FC Volendam 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 2.28 xG and FC Volendam 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.112 / defence 0.844 | FC Volendam attack 0.657 / defence 1.194. League average goals — home 1.717 / away 1.543. Data: 44 Feyenoord games / 10 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 69% | Draw 18% | FC Volendam 13%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 1.45 | Draw 5.56 | FC Volendam 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (69%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Feyenoord as the most likely outcome at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.14 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Feyenoord 50% | FC Volendam 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: De Kuip • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Nov 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 69% | Draw 18% | FC Volendam 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 52% | xG Feyenoord 2.28 / FC Volendam 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.112 / def 0.844 | FC Volendam attack 0.657 / def 1.194 | league avg home 1.717 / away 1.543 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.28
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
0.86
FC Volendam xG
52%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feyenoord vs FC Volendam kick off?
Feyenoord vs FC Volendam kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 1 November 2025 at De Kuip.
What was the final score in Feyenoord vs FC Volendam?
Feyenoord 3 - 1 FC Volendam.
Where is Feyenoord vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at De Kuip.
What competition is Feyenoord vs FC Volendam part of?
Feyenoord vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 69% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 13% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Feyenoord and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Feyenoord vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and FC Volendam?
Record (4 meetings): Feyenoord 3W | Draws 1 | FC Volendam 0W.
What form are Feyenoord and FC Volendam in?
Feyenoord (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. FC Volendam (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Feyenoord's attack rating (1.11) and FC Volendam's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 2.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus Feyenoord's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
69%
1.44
18%
5.56
13%
7.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.28
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
3.14
0.86
FC Volendam xG
1.44
69%
Home win
5.56
18%
Draw
7.97
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
42%
2.35
10%
9.79
Win to Nil
30%
3.39
1%
78.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.9 | 8.5 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.6 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 2.28 expected goals for Feyenoord and 0.86 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs FC Volendam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Feyenoord's recent record stands at 28W 9D 7L from 44 games, a 2.11 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Volendam, meanwhile, have gone 27W 8D 9L across 44 games — 2.02 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Feyenoord on 2.11 PPG, FC Volendam on 2.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Feyenoord have managed 15W 3D 4L from 22 games — 2.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Volendam's away record stands at 11W 6D 5L across 22 trips, a 1.77 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Feyenoord are averaging 2.34 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 2.09 scored and 1.30 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 66%.
Defensively: Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feyenoord and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 28W 9D 7L in their last 44 games (2.11 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 27W 8D 9L in their last 44 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or FC Volendam away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.18 PPG; FC Volendam away: 1.77 PPG.
Have Feyenoord or FC Volendam been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, FC Volendam in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Feyenoord's record when hosting FC Volendam specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Feyenoord
2
Draws
0
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and FC Volendam?
From 6 meetings on record, Feyenoord have won 4, FC Volendam have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when FC Volendam 0-0 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and FC Volendam?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feyenoord 54%, FC Volendam 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Feyenoord and 68% for FC Volendam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feyenoord play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Feyenoord's games and 68% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Feyenoord vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Feyenoord's matches and 68% of FC Volendam's.
Do Feyenoord and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Feyenoord have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Feyenoord cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC Volendam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat FC Volendam 3-1 at De Kuip, Regular Season - 11, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 2.28 xG and FC Volendam 0.86 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.11 / defence 0.84 against FC Volendam attack 0.66 / defence 1.19, drawn from 44/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 69% | Draw 18% | FC Volendam 13%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 69%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 59%, FC Volendam 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feyenoord's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Volendam's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Feyenoord 2.11 PPG, FC Volendam 2.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Feyenoord win broke the near-deadlock. Feyenoord (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.18 average — above their attacking norm. FC Volendam (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.