Willem II 2-1 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 39%, yet the head-to-head data favours Willem II — this Willem II vs Waalwijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Koning Willem II Stadion plays host to Willem II versus Waalwijk in Eerste Divisie (matchday 26). Kick-off: Sunday 8 February 2026 at 13:30 UK time.

Current Form

Willem II's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Willem II's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Waalwijk have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Waalwijk have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Willem II, 1.50 for Waalwijk — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Willem II's last 10 home games and Waalwijk's last 10 away games) — Willem II have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Waalwijk in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Willem II have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins, with Waalwijk managing 1 and 0 draws.

The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.4 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 17 Oct 2025, ended Willem II 3–2 Waalwijk — a Willem II win.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Willem II and goals — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 3.4 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.

Trading Data

Willem II goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).

Waalwijk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Willem II 61% and Waalwijk 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 54% | Waalwijk 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.27 xG and Waalwijk 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.764 / defence 0.890 | Waalwijk attack 1.062 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.763 / away 1.503. Willem II's attack rating of 0.764 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.27. Data: built from Willem II's last 24 games and Waalwijk's last 25.

Result probabilities: Willem II 32% | Draw 29% | Waalwijk 39%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 3.13 | Draw 3.42 | Waalwijk 2.58. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Waalwijk at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Waalwijk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Willem II's last 10 home games and Waalwijk's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Willem II 60% (last 10 home games) | Waalwijk 70% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights