🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Cambuur at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cambuur vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Cambuur host Almere City FC at Kooi Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 3 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Cambuur stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Kooi Stadion, Cambuur have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Almere City FC have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

Almere City FC's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cambuur at 2.30 PPG versus Almere City FC's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cambuur register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Almere City FC in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Cambuur, 0 for Almere City FC and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Cambuur in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Almere City FC in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambuur 56% versus Almere City FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 55% | Almere City FC 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 2.31 xG and Almere City FC 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 1.127 / defence 0.784 | Almere City FC attack 1.154 / defence 1.226. League average goals — home 1.669 / away 1.450. Almere City FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.226 — this is suppressing Cambuur's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Cambuur's defence rating of 0.784 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 65 Cambuur games / 28 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Cambuur 59% | Draw 20% | Almere City FC 20%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 1.69 | Draw 5.00 | Almere City FC 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Cambuur (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.31 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Cambuur are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.62 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 60% | Almere City FC 80% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights