Willem II 3-0 Vitesse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Willem II at 37% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Willem II vs Vitesse encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Willem II welcome Vitesse to Koning Willem II Stadion in Eerste Divisie (matchday 28). Kick-off is Friday 20 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Willem II — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Willem II at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Vitesse have recorded 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Vitesse away from home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Willem II at 1.70 PPG versus Vitesse's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Willem II's games and 60% of Vitesse's (from Willem II's last 10 home games and Vitesse's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Willem II: 3 wins from 3 H2H matches against 0 for Vitesse, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Sep 2025, ended Willem II 2–1 Vitesse — a Willem II win.
The head-to-head data gives Willem II an edge — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Profile
Willem II in-play tendencies (last 64 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Vitesse in-play tendencies (last 64 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Willem II 62% and Vitesse 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 52% | Vitesse 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.29 xG and Vitesse 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.821 / defence 0.879 | Vitesse attack 0.941 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.718 / away 1.483. Data: built from Willem II's last 26 games and Vitesse's last 65.
Result probabilities: Willem II 37% | Draw 29% | Vitesse 34%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 2.71 | Draw 3.43 | Vitesse 2.95. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Willem II are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Willem II 3 wins from 3 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Willem II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Willem II 60% (last 10 home games) | Vitesse 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Vitesse | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 28 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 20 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 37% | Draw 29% | Vitesse 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Willem II 1.29 / Vitesse 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.821 / def 0.879 | Vitesse attack 0.941 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.718 / away 1.483 • Poisson stance: Willem II (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Vitesse xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Willem II vs Vitesse FAQs
What time does Willem II vs Vitesse kick off?
Willem II vs Vitesse kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 20 February 2026 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs Vitesse?
Willem II 3 - 0 Vitesse.
Where is Willem II vs Vitesse being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Vitesse part of?
Willem II vs Vitesse is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 28) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Vitesse?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 37% chance of winning, Vitesse a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Vitesse?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Willem II and Vitesse will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Willem II vs Vitesse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Willem II's attack rating (0.82) and Vitesse's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vitesse's attack versus Willem II's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Willem II's last 26 games and Vitesse's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
37%
2.71
29%
3.43
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.52
1.23
Vitesse xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
11%
9.25
9%
10.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.8 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Willem II vs Vitesse Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Vitesse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Willem II and Vitesse expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Willem II and 1.23 for Vitesse, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Vitesse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Willem II come into this having played 64 games, going 18W 16D 30L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D.
On the other side, Vitesse sit at 1.25 PPG from 64 outings (20W 20D 24L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Willem II on 1.09 PPG, Vitesse on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Willem II's home form reads 10W 6D 15L across their last 31 home games, a 1.16 PPG return.
Away from home, Vitesse have taken 1.03 points per game from their last 31 away games (7W 11D 13L).
The Goals Picture
Willem II are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Vitesse are on 1.45 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Vitesse in 62%.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Blended
Vitesse
Blended
Willem II (Home) vs Vitesse (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Willem II
Blended
Vitesse
Blended
❓ Willem II vs Vitesse Form FAQs
What form are Willem II and Vitesse in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 18W 16D 30L in their last 64 games (1.09 PPG), while Vitesse have gone 20W 20D 24L in their last 64 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Vitesse away?
Willem II's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 1.16 PPG; Vitesse away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. They cover more than one competition — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 20 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Willem II have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Aug 2021, when Willem II won Vitesse 0-3 Willem II.
Willem II's record when hosting Vitesse specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Willem II
0
Draws
0
Vitesse
Recent Meetings
❓ Willem II vs Vitesse H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Vitesse?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Willem II have won 4, Vitesse have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Vitesse last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 February 2026: Willem II 3-0 Vitesse.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Vitesse?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 61%, Vitesse 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for Willem II and 68% for Vitesse. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vitesse in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Vitesse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Willem II vs Vitesse Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Willem II and Vitesse matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Willem II's games and 61% of Vitesse's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Willem II and Vitesse matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Willem II's matches and 68% of Vitesse's.
Do Willem II and Vitesse matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Willem II's recent matches and 84% of Vitesse's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Willem II run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Vitesse.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat Vitesse 3-0 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.29 xG and Vitesse 1.23 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Willem II beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Vitesse landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.82 / defence 0.88 against Vitesse attack 0.94 / defence 0.91, drawn from 26/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 37% | Draw 29% | Vitesse 34%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 52%, Vitesse 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Vitesse's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Willem II 1.09 PPG, Vitesse 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Willem II win broke the near-deadlock. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Vitesse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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