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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model rates ADO Den Haag at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Willem II vs ADO Den Haag fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 22 as Willem II welcome ADO Den Haag to Koning Willem II Stadion. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 24 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Willem II have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Willem II at Koning Willem II Stadion this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

ADO Den Haag — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends games from this season and last.

ADO Den Haag away from home this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 away games — 2.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.40 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Willem II) versus 1.60 (ADO Den Haag). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Willem II, 1 for ADO Den Haag and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2025, ended 1–5 with ADO Den Haag winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Willem II in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).

ADO Den Haag in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Willem II 62% and ADO Den Haag 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 52% | ADO Den Haag 69%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.30 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.949 / defence 0.804 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.441 / defence 0.824. League average goals — home 1.670 / away 1.460. ADO Den Haag have an above-average attack strength of 1.441 — the away xG of 1.69 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 27 Willem II games / 65 ADO Den Haag games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Willem II 29% | Draw 26% | ADO Den Haag 46%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | ADO Den Haag 2.17. ADO Den Haag hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.30 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates ADO Den Haag as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on ADO Den Haag offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 60% | ADO Den Haag 50% BTTS from recent games.

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