Waalwijk vs De Graafschap – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waalwijk vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
De Graafschap make the trip to Mandemakers Stadion to face Waalwijk in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Friday 5 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Waalwijk (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at Mandemakers Stadion this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
De Graafschap's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Waalwijk against 1.10 for De Graafschap. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Waalwijk register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, De Graafschap in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Waalwijk lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2026, ended 4–2 with Waalwijk winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Waalwijk half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 84% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
De Graafschap half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Waalwijk 76% and De Graafschap 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Waalwijk 62% | De Graafschap 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 2.15 xG and De Graafschap 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 1.129 / defence 1.003 | De Graafschap attack 0.982 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.856 / away 1.461. Data: 49 Waalwijk games / 48 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 54% | Draw 21% | De Graafschap 26%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 1.85 | Draw 4.76 | De Graafschap 3.85. Waalwijk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.15 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Waalwijk are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.59 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 80% | De Graafschap 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 5 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 54% | Draw 21% | De Graafschap 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 67% | xG Waalwijk 2.15 / De Graafschap 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 1.129 / def 1.003 | De Graafschap attack 0.982 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.856 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.44
De Graafschap xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs De Graafschap kick off?
Waalwijk vs De Graafschap is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 5 February 2027 at Mandemakers Stadion.
Where is Waalwijk vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs De Graafschap part of?
Waalwijk vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 54% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 26% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Waalwijk and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and De Graafschap?
Record (2 meetings): Waalwijk 1W | Draws 0 | De Graafschap 1W.
What form are Waalwijk and De Graafschap in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. De Graafschap (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Waalwijk's attack rating (1.13) and De Graafschap's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 2.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — De Graafschap's attack (0.98x) against Waalwijk's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 49/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 2-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
54%
1.86
21%
4.83
26%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 2
6.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
3.59
1.44
De Graafschap xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.83
21%
Draw
3.92
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.06
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
12%
8.56
Win to Nil
13%
7.84
3%
33.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 8.6 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.6 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.44 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Waalwijk's recent record stands at 18W 18D 14L from 50 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 21W 12D 17L across 50 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Waalwijk against 1.50 for De Graafschap. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Waalwijk have managed 10W 8D 7L from 25 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 9W 8D 8L across 25 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Waalwijk are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.80 scored and 1.72 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games; De Graafschap in 74%.
Last 50 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 18W 18D 14L in their last 50 games (1.44 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 21W 12D 17L in their last 50 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or De Graafschap away?
Waalwijk's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.52 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Waalwijk
0
Draws
1
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and De Graafschap?
From 2 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 1, De Graafschap have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when De Graafschap 2-4 Waalwijk.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 84% for Waalwijk, 72% for De Graafschap — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Waalwijk and 68% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 84% of Waalwijk's games and 72% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waalwijk vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Waalwijk's matches and 68% of De Graafschap's.
Do Waalwijk and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.