Jong AZ vs Roda – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Jong AZ at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong AZ vs Roda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Roda make the trip to AFAS Trainingscomplex to face Jong AZ in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Monday 8 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jong AZ's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jong AZ have posted 4W 1D 5L at AFAS Trainingscomplex — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Roda have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Jong AZ against 1.60 for Roda. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: Jong AZ 5W, Roda 3W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.4 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2026, ended 2–0 with Jong AZ winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Jong AZ — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
Roda — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong AZ 63% and Roda 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 69% | Roda 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.06 xG and Roda 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 0.800 / defence 1.012 | Roda attack 0.629 / defence 0.716. League average goals — home 1.856 / away 1.461. Roda's defence strength of 0.716 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 49 Jong AZ games / 48 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 38% | Draw 31% | Roda 31%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | Roda 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong AZ are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong AZ if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.99 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jong AZ 50% | Roda 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Monday 8 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 38% | Draw 31% | Roda 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Jong AZ 1.06 / Roda 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 0.800 / def 1.012 | Roda attack 0.629 / def 0.716 | league avg home 1.856 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Roda xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs Roda kick off?
Jong AZ vs Roda is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Monday 8 February 2027 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
Where is Jong AZ vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs Roda part of?
Jong AZ vs Roda is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 38% chance of winning, Roda a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Jong AZ and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Roda?
Record (10 meetings): Jong AZ 5W | Draws 2 | Roda 3W.
What form are Jong AZ and Roda in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Roda (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Jong AZ's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Roda's defensive record (0.72x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. Flip it around — Roda's attack (0.63x) against Jong AZ's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 49/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
38%
2.63
31%
3.24
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
1.99
0.93
Roda xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
15%
6.66
11%
9.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 12.7 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Jong AZ and 0.93 for Roda, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jong AZ come into this having played 49 games, going 16W 6D 27L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-D. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Roda sit at 1.43 PPG from 49 outings (17W 19D 13L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Jong AZ against 1.43 for Roda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Jong AZ's home form reads 6W 2D 16L across 24 games on their own ground, a 0.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Roda have taken 1.62 points per game from 24 outings (10W 9D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Jong AZ are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.39 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and Roda in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 16W 6D 27L in their last 49 games (1.10 PPG), while Roda have gone 17W 19D 13L in their last 49 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or Roda away?
Roda's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 0.83 PPG; Roda away: 1.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Jong AZ have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong AZ won 6-1 on 12 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong AZ have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Roda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Jong AZ
2
Draws
3
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 5, Roda have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Jong AZ 2-0 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and Roda?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 50%, Roda 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Jong AZ) and 54% (Roda). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong AZ have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Jong AZ's games and 62% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong AZ vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Jong AZ's matches and 54% of Roda's.
Do Jong AZ and Roda tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Roda in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.