Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Utrecht at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 25 as Jong Utrecht welcome FC OSS to Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch. Kick-off is set for Monday 8 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong Utrecht have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Jong Utrecht have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Jong Utrecht are significantly better at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch than their overall form suggests.
FC OSS — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC OSS's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour FC OSS — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jong Utrecht register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, FC OSS in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, FC OSS have the better historical record — 6 wins from 10 previous contests against 1 for Jong Utrecht.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2026, ended 1–2 with FC OSS winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. FC OSS have won 6 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Jong Utrecht trading profile (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
FC OSS trading profile (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 79% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong Utrecht 67% and FC OSS 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong Utrecht 67% | FC OSS 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 1.77 xG and FC OSS 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.982 / defence 1.350 | FC OSS attack 0.684 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.840 / away 1.459. Data: 49 Jong Utrecht games / 49 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 47% | Draw 23% | FC OSS 29%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 2.13 | Draw 4.35 | FC OSS 3.45. Jong Utrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jong Utrecht as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC OSS (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong Utrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jong Utrecht 60% | FC OSS 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch • Kick-off: Monday 8 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 47% | Draw 23% | FC OSS 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Jong Utrecht 1.77 / FC OSS 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 0.982 / def 1.350 | FC OSS attack 0.684 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.840 / away 1.459 • Poisson stance: Jong Utrecht (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.35
FC OSS xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Monday 8 February 2027 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS part of?
Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 47% chance of winning, FC OSS a 29% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Jong Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Jong Utrecht and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and FC OSS?
Record (10 meetings): Jong Utrecht 1W | Draws 3 | FC OSS 6W.
What form are Jong Utrecht and FC OSS in?
Jong Utrecht (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. FC OSS (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Jong Utrecht's attack at 0.98x the league average against FC OSS's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC OSS's attack versus Jong Utrecht's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Utrecht Win
47%
2.11
23%
4.30
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
3.11
1.35
FC OSS xG
2.11
47%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
17%
5.85
Win to Nil
12%
8.13
5%
19.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.6 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 1.35 for FC OSS, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jong Utrecht's recent record stands at 14W 11D 24L from 49 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC OSS, meanwhile, have gone 15W 11D 23L across 49 games — 1.14 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong Utrecht on 1.08 PPG, FC OSS on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Jong Utrecht have managed 9W 6D 10L from 25 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC OSS's away record stands at 5W 8D 12L across 25 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong Utrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Jong Utrecht are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 1.43 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Utrecht have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; FC OSS in 65%.
Last 49 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Blended
FC OSS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Utrecht and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 14W 11D 24L in their last 49 games (1.08 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 15W 11D 23L in their last 49 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or FC OSS away?
Jong Utrecht's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 1.32 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: FC OSS have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Feb 2022, when FC OSS won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong Utrecht's record when hosting FC OSS specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Jong Utrecht
3
Draws
6
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and FC OSS?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Utrecht have won 1, FC OSS have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when FC OSS 2-1 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and FC OSS?
FC OSS have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC OSS see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Jong Utrecht at 72%, FC OSS at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Jong Utrecht and 44% for FC OSS. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC OSS in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Utrecht play FC OSS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Jong Utrecht's games and 60% of FC OSS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Jong Utrecht's matches and 44% of FC OSS's.
Do Jong Utrecht and FC OSS tend to score early?
Jong Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.