FC Volendam vs Almere City FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Volendam at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Volendam vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 25 as FC Volendam welcome Almere City FC to Kras Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 5 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Volendam stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Volendam's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Kras Stadion this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Almere City FC have recorded 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almere City FC away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Almere City FC's 2.10 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of FC Volendam's 1.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for FC Volendam, 2 for Almere City FC and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2026, ended 0–1 with Almere City FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
FC Volendam in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Almere City FC in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 60% and Almere City FC 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Volendam 60% | Almere City FC 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 2.27 xG and Almere City FC 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 1.381 / defence 0.827 | Almere City FC attack 1.263 / defence 0.891. League average goals — home 1.840 / away 1.459. FC Volendam carry an above-average attack strength of 1.381 — their λ of 2.27 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Almere City FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.263 — the away xG of 1.52 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 11 FC Volendam games / 49 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 54% | Draw 20% | Almere City FC 26%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 1.85 | Draw 5.00 | Almere City FC 3.85. FC Volendam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.79. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.79 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.27 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Volendam as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Almere City FC (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results.
The Poisson model projects 3.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 73% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 50% | Almere City FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 5 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 54% | Draw 20% | Almere City FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 70% | xG FC Volendam 2.27 / Almere City FC 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 1.381 / def 0.827 | Almere City FC attack 1.263 / def 0.891 | league avg home 1.840 / away 1.459 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.27
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Almere City FC xG
70%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Almere City FC kick off?
FC Volendam vs Almere City FC is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 5 February 2027 at Kras Stadion.
Where is FC Volendam vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Almere City FC part of?
FC Volendam vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 54% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 26% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both FC Volendam and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Almere City FC?
Record (5 meetings): FC Volendam 2W | Draws 1 | Almere City FC 2W.
What form are FC Volendam and Almere City FC in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Almere City FC (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Volendam's attack rating (1.38) and Almere City FC's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 2.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Almere City FC's attack versus FC Volendam's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.8%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
54%
1.84
20%
4.99
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.27
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.79
1.52
Almere City FC xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.99
20%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.34
Clean Sheet
22%
4.59
10%
9.63
Win to Nil
12%
8.44
3%
37.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 7.8 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.7 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.27 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.52 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 3.79.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Volendam's recent record stands at 14W 9D 24L from 47 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Almere City FC, meanwhile, have gone 25W 6D 16L across 47 games — 1.72 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Almere City FC by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Volendam heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Volendam have managed 11W 5D 7L from 23 games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — FC Volendam are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Almere City FC's away record stands at 11W 3D 9L across 23 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Volendam are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 2.00 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almere City FC in 64%.
Last 47 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 14W 9D 24L in their last 47 games (1.09 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 25W 6D 16L in their last 47 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Almere City FC away?
FC Volendam's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 1.65 PPG; Almere City FC away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 3 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
FC Volendam's record when hosting Almere City FC specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
FC Volendam
1
Draws
2
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Almere City FC?
From 5 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 2, Almere City FC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 3 October 2026, when Almere City FC 1-0 FC Volendam.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Volendam at 70%, Almere City FC at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for FC Volendam and 74% for Almere City FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Almere City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of FC Volendam's games and 74% of Almere City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of FC Volendam's matches and 74% of Almere City FC's.
Do FC Volendam and Almere City FC tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.