Waalwijk vs Heracles – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 46%, yet in-form Heracles provide a compelling counter-argument — this Waalwijk vs Heracles fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Heracles travel to Mandemakers Stadion to take on Waalwijk. The game is scheduled for Friday 12 February 2027, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waalwijk stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk's home record at Mandemakers Stadion: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Heracles — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heracles's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Heracles's 2.50 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Waalwijk's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Waalwijk register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Heracles in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Waalwijk, 3 for Heracles and 2 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2026, ended 0–3 with Heracles winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Waalwijk in-play and half-time data (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Heracles in-play and half-time data (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Waalwijk 78% and Heracles 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Waalwijk 64% | Heracles 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 2.32 xG and Heracles 2.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 1.257 / defence 1.030 | Heracles attack 1.363 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.884 / away 1.433. Waalwijk carry an above-average attack strength of 1.257 — their λ of 2.32 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Heracles have an above-average attack strength of 1.363 — the away xG of 2.01 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 Waalwijk games / 10 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 46% | Draw 20% | Heracles 34%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 2.17 | Draw 5.00 | Heracles 2.94. Waalwijk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 81% | BTTS probability 78% | Total xG 4.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 81% — a total xG of 4.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 78% reflects that both xG figures (2.32 / 2.01) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Waalwijk are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Heracles (2.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.33 combined xG gives a 81% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 78% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 80% | Heracles 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Heracles | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 12 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 46% | Draw 20% | Heracles 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 81% | BTTS 78% | xG Waalwijk 2.32 / Heracles 2.01 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 1.257 / def 1.030 | Heracles attack 1.363 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.884 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.32
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
2.01
Heracles xG
78%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
63%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs Heracles kick off?
Waalwijk vs Heracles is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 12 February 2027 at Mandemakers Stadion.
Where is Waalwijk vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Heracles part of?
Waalwijk vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 46% chance of winning, Heracles a 34% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 78% probability that both Waalwijk and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 81%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Heracles?
Record (7 meetings): Waalwijk 2W | Draws 2 | Heracles 3W.
What form are Waalwijk and Heracles in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Heracles (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Waalwijk's attack rating (1.26) and Heracles's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 2.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Heracles's attack versus Waalwijk's defence, projects 2.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.1%), 1-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
46%
2.18
20%
5.09
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
7.1%
Home win
1 – 2
6.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.32
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
4.33
2.01
Heracles xG
2.18
46%
Home win
5.09
20%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
81%
Over 2.5
1.23
19%
Under 2.5
5.26
63%
Over 3.5
1.59
37%
Under 3.5
2.70
44%
Over 4.5
2.27
56%
Under 4.5
1.79
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
78%
BTTS Yes
1.28
22%
BTTS No
4.57
Clean Sheet
13%
7.49
10%
10.18
Win to Nil
6%
16.32
3%
29.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 3.0 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 2-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.2%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 2.32 expected goals for Waalwijk and 2.01 for Heracles, a combined total of 4.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Heracles?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Waalwijk's recent record stands at 16W 17D 12L from 45 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Heracles, meanwhile, have gone 14W 5D 26L across 45 games — 1.04 PPG, with L-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Waalwijk on 1.44 PPG, Heracles on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Waalwijk have managed 10W 7D 6L from 23 games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Heracles's away record stands at 5W 2D 16L across 23 trips, a 0.74 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Waalwijk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Waalwijk are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.58 scored and 2.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Blended
Heracles
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and Heracles in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 16W 17D 12L in their last 45 games (1.44 PPG), while Heracles have gone 14W 5D 26L in their last 45 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Heracles away?
Waalwijk's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.61 PPG; Heracles away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Waalwijk and Heracles runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 9 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 May 2024, when Waalwijk won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Waalwijk's record when hosting Heracles specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Waalwijk
2
Draws
3
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Heracles?
From 7 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 2, Heracles have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 9 October 2026, when Heracles 3-0 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and Heracles?
Heracles have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Waalwijk at 83%, Heracles at 56%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Waalwijk and 78% for Heracles. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play Heracles?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Waalwijk's games and 56% of Heracles's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waalwijk vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Waalwijk's matches and 78% of Heracles's.
Do Waalwijk and Heracles tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Heracles in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.