De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates De Graafschap at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
De Graafschap host Helmond Sport at De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 29 January 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
De Graafschap — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
De Graafschap's home record at De Vijverberg: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — De Graafschap are significantly better at De Vijverberg than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Helmond Sport have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Helmond Sport have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Helmond Sport's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: De Graafschap 0.90 PPG, Helmond Sport 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: De Graafschap have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 10 past contests while Helmond Sport have managed just 2 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both De Graafschap and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
De Graafschap trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
Helmond Sport trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 76% and Helmond Sport 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 69% | Helmond Sport 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.99 xG and Helmond Sport 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.011 / defence 1.397 | Helmond Sport attack 0.761 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. Data: 42 De Graafschap games / 42 Helmond Sport games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 43% | Draw 21% | Helmond Sport 36%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.33 | Draw 4.76 | Helmond Sport 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.79. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.79 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.99 / 1.81) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is De Graafschap at 43% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 72%. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 70% | Helmond Sport 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 29 Jan 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 43% | Draw 21% | Helmond Sport 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 72% | xG De Graafschap 1.99 / Helmond Sport 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.011 / def 1.397 | Helmond Sport attack 0.761 / def 1.110 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Helmond Sport xG
72%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport kick off?
De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 29 January 2027 at De Vijverberg.
Where is De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport being played?
The match is being played at De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport part of?
De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 43% chance of winning, Helmond Sport a 36% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both De Graafschap and Helmond Sport will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Helmond Sport?
Record (10 meetings): De Graafschap 6W | Draws 2 | Helmond Sport 2W.
What form are De Graafschap and Helmond Sport in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Helmond Sport (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from De Graafschap's attack rating (1.01) and Helmond Sport's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Helmond Sport's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.0%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
43%
2.33
21%
4.71
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
3.79
1.81
Helmond Sport xG
2.33
43%
Home win
4.71
21%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.59
Clean Sheet
16%
6.09
14%
7.29
Win to Nil
7%
14.17
5%
20.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 8.1 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Helmond Sport expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.81 for Helmond Sport, a combined total of 3.79.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 42 outings, De Graafschap have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 17W 11D 14L record — D-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Helmond Sport's form line: 10W 11D 21L from 42 games, 0.98 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Helmond Sport, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, De Graafschap are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Helmond Sport.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, De Graafschap have posted 1.48 PPG from 21 outings (9W 4D 8L).
On the road, Helmond Sport have gone 2W 4D 15L from 21 away games — 0.48 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.98 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Helmond Sport's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
De Graafschap are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Helmond Sport are on 1.12 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Early Season
Helmond Sport
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Helmond Sport in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 17W 11D 14L in their last 42 games (1.48 PPG), while Helmond Sport have gone 10W 11D 21L in their last 42 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Helmond Sport away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.48 PPG; Helmond Sport away: 0.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between De Graafschap and Helmond Sport runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Apr 2022, when De Graafschap won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
De Graafschap's record when hosting Helmond Sport specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
De Graafschap
2
Draws
2
Helmond Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Helmond Sport?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 6, Helmond Sport have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Helmond Sport last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Helmond Sport 1-1 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Helmond Sport?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 76%, Helmond Sport 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (De Graafschap) and 48% (Helmond Sport). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Helmond Sport in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Helmond Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Helmond Sport?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of De Graafschap's games and 43% of Helmond Sport's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of De Graafschap's matches and 48% of Helmond Sport's.
Do De Graafschap and Helmond Sport tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Helmond Sport in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.