De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates De Graafschap at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
De Graafschap host Helmond Sport at De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 29 January 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
De Graafschap — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap's home record at De Vijverberg: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — De Graafschap are significantly better at De Vijverberg than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Helmond Sport have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Helmond Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Helmond Sport's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: De Graafschap 1.10 PPG, Helmond Sport 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: De Graafschap have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 10 past contests while Helmond Sport have managed just 2 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both De Graafschap and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
De Graafschap trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Helmond Sport trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 74% and Helmond Sport 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 69% | Helmond Sport 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.99 xG and Helmond Sport 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.894 / defence 1.145 | Helmond Sport attack 0.731 / defence 1.200. League average goals — home 1.856 / away 1.461. Data: 48 De Graafschap games / 49 Helmond Sport games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 55% | Draw 22% | Helmond Sport 23%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 1.82 | Draw 4.55 | Helmond Sport 4.35. The model has a clear lean to De Graafschap (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.99 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is De Graafschap at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.21 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 80% | Helmond Sport 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 29 Jan 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 55% | Draw 22% | Helmond Sport 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 61% | xG De Graafschap 1.99 / Helmond Sport 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.894 / def 1.145 | Helmond Sport attack 0.731 / def 1.200 | league avg home 1.856 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Helmond Sport xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport kick off?
De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 29 January 2027 at De Vijverberg.
Where is De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport being played?
The match is being played at De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport part of?
De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 55% chance of winning, Helmond Sport a 23% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both De Graafschap and Helmond Sport will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Helmond Sport?
Record (10 meetings): De Graafschap 6W | Draws 2 | Helmond Sport 2W.
What form are De Graafschap and Helmond Sport in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Helmond Sport (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from De Graafschap's attack rating (0.89) and Helmond Sport's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Helmond Sport's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
55%
1.81
22%
4.62
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
3.21
1.22
Helmond Sport xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.62
22%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
14%
7.32
Win to Nil
16%
6.15
3%
31.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Helmond Sport expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.22 for Helmond Sport, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 49 outings, De Graafschap have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 20W 12D 17L record — W-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Helmond Sport's form line: 12W 12D 25L from 49 games, 0.98 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Helmond Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, De Graafschap are the form team by 0.49 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Helmond Sport.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, De Graafschap have posted 1.54 PPG from 24 outings (11W 4D 9L).
On the road, Helmond Sport have gone 2W 4D 18L from 24 away games — 0.42 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.98 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Helmond Sport's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
De Graafschap are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Helmond Sport are on 1.18 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
Helmond Sport
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Helmond Sport in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 20W 12D 17L in their last 49 games (1.47 PPG), while Helmond Sport have gone 12W 12D 25L in their last 49 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Helmond Sport away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.54 PPG; Helmond Sport away: 0.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between De Graafschap and Helmond Sport runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Apr 2022, when De Graafschap won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
De Graafschap's record when hosting Helmond Sport specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
De Graafschap
2
Draws
2
Helmond Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Helmond Sport?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 6, Helmond Sport have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Helmond Sport last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Helmond Sport 1-1 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Helmond Sport?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 75%, Helmond Sport 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for De Graafschap and 50% for Helmond Sport. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Helmond Sport in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Helmond Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Helmond Sport?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of De Graafschap's games and 46% of Helmond Sport's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of De Graafschap's matches and 50% of Helmond Sport's.
Do De Graafschap and Helmond Sport tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Helmond Sport in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.