Telstar 3-1 Jong PSV U21 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Telstar at 62% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Telstar vs Jong PSV U21 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jong PSV U21 make the trip to 711 Stadion to face Telstar in Eerste Divisie (matchday 33). The match kicks off on Friday 5 April 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Form
Telstar (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Telstar have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jong PSV U21 have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L L L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Jong PSV U21's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Telstar's 1.50 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Jong PSV U21's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Telstar's last 10 home games and Jong PSV U21's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of Telstar's games and 70% of Jong PSV U21's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Telstar edge it 2 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Aug 2023, ended Telstar 0–1 Jong PSV U21 — a Jong PSV U21 win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Telstar — key trading statistics (last 70 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Jong PSV U21 — key trading statistics (last 70 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; of the 29 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 34%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Telstar 50% versus Jong PSV U21 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Telstar 47% | Jong PSV U21 71%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Telstar surrender their half-time lead 39% of the time, while Jong PSV U21 have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 34% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Telstar 2.56 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Telstar attack 1.114 / defence 1.001 | Jong PSV U21 attack 1.048 / defence 1.420. League average goals — home 1.618 / away 1.350. Jong PSV U21's defence rating of 1.420 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Telstar's projected output up. Data: built from Telstar's last 70 games and Jong PSV U21's last 70.
Result probabilities: Telstar 62% | Draw 19% | Jong PSV U21 19%. Fair-value odds: Telstar 1.62 | Draw 5.36 | Jong PSV U21 5.14. The model has a clear lean to Telstar (62%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS Yes probability 70% | Total xG 3.98. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.98 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% — both xG figures (2.56 / 1.42) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Telstar are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 76% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Telstar's last 10 home games and Jong PSV U21's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Telstar 80% (last 10 home games) | Jong PSV U21 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Telstar vs Jong PSV U21 | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 33 | Venue: 711 Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 5 April 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Telstar 62% | Draw 19% | Jong PSV U21 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% (Under 24%) | BTTS Yes 70% (No 30%) | xG Telstar 2.56 / Jong PSV U21 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Telstar attack 1.114 / def 1.001 | Jong PSV U21 attack 1.048 / def 1.420 | league avg home 1.618 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: Telstar (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.56
Telstar xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Jong PSV U21 xG
70%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Telstar vs Jong PSV U21 FAQs
What time does Telstar vs Jong PSV U21 kick off?
Telstar vs Jong PSV U21 kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 5 April 2024 at 711 Stadion.
What was the final score in Telstar vs Jong PSV U21?
Telstar 3 - 1 Jong PSV U21.
Where is Telstar vs Jong PSV U21 being played?
The match is being played at 711 Stadion.
What competition is Telstar vs Jong PSV U21 part of?
Telstar vs Jong PSV U21 is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 33) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Telstar vs Jong PSV U21?
Our statistical model gives Telstar a 62% chance of winning, Jong PSV U21 a 19% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Telstar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Telstar vs Jong PSV U21?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Telstar and Jong PSV U21 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Telstar vs Jong PSV U21 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Telstar's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Jong PSV U21's defensive record (1.42x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.56. Flip it around — Jong PSV U21's attack (1.05x) against Telstar's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from Telstar's last 70 games and Jong PSV U21's last 70 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.7%), 3-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Telstar Win
62%
1.62
19%
5.36
19%
5.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.4%
Home win
1 – 1
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.56
Telstar xG
Total xG
3.98
1.42
Jong PSV U21 xG
1.62
62%
Home win
5.36
19%
Draw
5.14
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.36
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
8%
12.92
Win to Nil
15%
6.66
2%
66.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.7 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Telstar vs Jong PSV U21 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Telstar vs Jong PSV U21?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Telstar and Jong PSV U21 expected to score?
The model projects 2.56 expected goals for Telstar and 1.42 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 3.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Telstar vs Jong PSV U21?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Telstar come into this having played 70 games, going 22W 17D 31L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-W.
On the other side, Jong PSV U21 sit at 1.04 PPG from 70 outings (19W 16D 35L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Telstar against 1.04 for Jong PSV U21. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Telstar's home form reads 14W 9D 11L across their last 34 home games, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong PSV U21 have taken 0.88 points per game from their last 34 away games (7W 9D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Telstar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Telstar are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Jong PSV U21 are on 1.53 scored and 1.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 in 67%.
Last 70 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Telstar
Current Season
Jong PSV U21
Current Season
Telstar (Home) vs Jong PSV U21 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Telstar
Current Season
Jong PSV U21
Current Season
❓ Telstar vs Jong PSV U21 Form FAQs
What form are Telstar and Jong PSV U21 in coming into this match?
Telstar have gone 22W 17D 31L in their last 70 games (1.19 PPG), while Jong PSV U21 have gone 19W 16D 35L in their last 70 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Telstar at home or Jong PSV U21 away?
Telstar's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Telstar at home: 1.50 PPG; Jong PSV U21 away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent in our data was on 12 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Telstar have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Telstar have gone 2W 2D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Jong PSV U21 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Telstar
2
Draws
1
Jong PSV U21
Recent Meetings
❓ Telstar vs Jong PSV U21 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and Jong PSV U21?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Telstar have won 5, Jong PSV U21 have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Telstar and Jong PSV U21 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 January 2025: Telstar 1-0 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Telstar and Jong PSV U21?
Telstar have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 42% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 28% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Telstar 59%, Jong PSV U21 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Telstar) and 68% (Jong PSV U21). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Telstar have failed to score in 26% of games; Jong PSV U21 in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Telstar home games / Jong PSV U21 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Telstar vs Jong PSV U21 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Telstar and Jong PSV U21 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Telstar's games and 68% of Jong PSV U21's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Telstar and Jong PSV U21 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Telstar's matches and 68% of Jong PSV U21's.
Do Telstar and Jong PSV U21 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Telstar's recent matches and 82% of Jong PSV U21's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Telstar cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Jong PSV U21.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Telstar beat Jong PSV U21 3-1 at 711 Stadion, Regular Season - 33, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 2.56 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.42 xG, a combined 3.98. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 1.11 / defence 1.00 against Jong PSV U21 attack 1.05 / defence 1.42, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Telstar 62% | Draw 19% | Jong PSV U21 19%, with Telstar to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 47%, Jong PSV U21 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Telstar's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Telstar 1.19 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Telstar win broke the near-deadlock. Telstar (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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