De Graafschap 5-1 Telstar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 56% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as De Graafschap face Telstar.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
De Graafschap and Telstar meet at Stadion De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie (matchday 34). This fixture gets under way on Friday 12 April 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Current Form
De Graafschap's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
De Graafschap's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — De Graafschap are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Telstar (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Telstar away from home: 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for De Graafschap against 1.70 for Telstar. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, De Graafschap edge it 3 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 Nov 2023, ended De Graafschap 2–1 Telstar — a De Graafschap win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
De Graafschap goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
Telstar goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 55% versus Telstar 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 61% | Telstar 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.73 xG and Telstar 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.993 / defence 0.930 | Telstar attack 0.736 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.615 / away 1.341. Telstar's attack rating of 0.736 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.92. Data: built from De Graafschap's last 71 games and Telstar's last 71.
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 56% | Draw 25% | Telstar 19%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 1.80 | Draw 3.92 | Telstar 5.28. The model has a clear lean to De Graafschap (56%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: De Graafschap 50% (last 10 home games) | Telstar 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Telstar | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 34 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 12 April 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 56% | Draw 25% | Telstar 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG De Graafschap 1.73 / Telstar 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.993 / def 0.930 | Telstar attack 0.736 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.615 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Telstar xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ De Graafschap vs Telstar FAQs
What time does De Graafschap vs Telstar kick off?
De Graafschap vs Telstar kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 12 April 2024 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Telstar?
De Graafschap 5 - 1 Telstar.
Where is De Graafschap vs Telstar being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Telstar part of?
De Graafschap vs Telstar is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 34) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Telstar?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 56% chance of winning, Telstar a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Telstar?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both De Graafschap and Telstar will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will De Graafschap vs Telstar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from De Graafschap's attack rating (0.99) and Telstar's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Telstar's attack (0.74x) against De Graafschap's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from De Graafschap's last 71 games and Telstar's last 71 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
56%
1.80
25%
3.92
19%
5.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.64
0.92
Telstar xG
1.80
56%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
5.28
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
18%
5.62
Win to Nil
22%
4.51
3%
29.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 11.3 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ De Graafschap vs Telstar Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Telstar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Telstar expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for De Graafschap and 0.92 for Telstar, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Telstar?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 71 outings, De Graafschap have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 32W 11D 28L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Telstar's form line: 23W 17D 31L from 71 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.51 PPG for De Graafschap against 1.21 for Telstar. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, De Graafschap have posted 1.77 PPG from their last 35 home games (19W 5D 11L).
On the road, Telstar have gone 8W 8D 19L from their last 35 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
De Graafschap are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Telstar are on 1.11 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Current Season
Telstar
Current Season
De Graafschap (Home) vs Telstar (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
De Graafschap
Current Season
Telstar
Current Season
❓ De Graafschap vs Telstar Form FAQs
What form are De Graafschap and Telstar in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 32W 11D 28L in their last 71 games (1.51 PPG), while Telstar have gone 23W 17D 31L in their last 71 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Telstar away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.77 PPG; Telstar away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent in our data was on 2 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: De Graafschap won De Graafschap 5-1 Telstar on 12 Apr 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, De Graafschap have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Telstar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
De Graafschap
2
Draws
1
Telstar
Recent Meetings
❓ De Graafschap vs Telstar H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Telstar?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, De Graafschap have won 5, Telstar have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Telstar last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 May 2025: De Graafschap 2-1 Telstar.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Telstar?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 46%, Telstar 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (De Graafschap) and 43% (Telstar).
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; De Graafschap have failed to score in 26% of games; Telstar in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Telstar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ De Graafschap vs Telstar Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in De Graafschap and Telstar matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 43% of Telstar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are De Graafschap and Telstar matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of De Graafschap's recent games and 43% of Telstar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do De Graafschap and Telstar matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 69% of Telstar's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant De Graafschap run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Telstar.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Telstar 5-1 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 34, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.73 xG and Telstar 0.92 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. De Graafschap beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.99 / defence 0.93 against Telstar attack 0.74 / defence 1.08, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 56% | Draw 25% | Telstar 19%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 61%, Telstar 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Telstar's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.51 PPG, Telstar 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm. Telstar (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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