Dordrecht 2-1 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dordrecht at 56% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dordrecht vs De Graafschap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dordrecht and De Graafschap meet at M-Scores Stadion in Eerste Divisie (matchday 33). This fixture gets under way on Friday 5 April 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Dordrecht have collected 2.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Dordrecht at home: 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
De Graafschap (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
De Graafschap's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form favours the hosts. Dordrecht's 2.10 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of De Graafschap's 1.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Dordrecht, 1 for De Graafschap and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Dec 2023, ended Dordrecht 1–1 De Graafschap — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Dordrecht — key trading statistics (last 70 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 29 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
De Graafschap — key trading statistics (last 70 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 56% versus De Graafschap 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 59% | De Graafschap 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.84 xG and De Graafschap 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 1.009 / defence 0.707 | De Graafschap attack 1.055 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.618 / away 1.350. Dordrecht have a tight defence (rating 0.707), which is pulling De Graafschap's projected output down. Data: built from Dordrecht's last 70 games and De Graafschap's last 70.
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 56% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 20%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 1.78 | Draw 4.20 | De Graafschap 5.02. The model has a clear lean to Dordrecht (56%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dordrecht are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Dordrecht's last 10 home games and De Graafschap's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Dordrecht 40% (last 10 home games) | De Graafschap 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 33 | Venue: M-Scores Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 5 April 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 56% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Dordrecht 1.84 / De Graafschap 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 1.009 / def 0.707 | De Graafschap attack 1.055 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.618 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.01
De Graafschap xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dordrecht vs De Graafschap FAQs
What time does Dordrecht vs De Graafschap kick off?
Dordrecht vs De Graafschap kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 5 April 2024 at M-Scores Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs De Graafschap?
Dordrecht 2 - 1 De Graafschap.
Where is Dordrecht vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at M-Scores Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs De Graafschap part of?
Dordrecht vs De Graafschap is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 33) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 56% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Dordrecht and De Graafschap will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Dordrecht vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Dordrecht's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against De Graafschap's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.84. Flip it around — De Graafschap's attack (1.05x) against Dordrecht's defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from Dordrecht's last 70 games and De Graafschap's last 70 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
56%
1.78
24%
4.20
20%
5.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
2.84
1.01
De Graafschap xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
5.02
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
16%
6.27
Win to Nil
21%
4.86
3%
31.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 10.8 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dordrecht vs De Graafschap Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.01 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs De Graafschap?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dordrecht's recent record stands at 24W 20D 26L from 70 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-W in the last five.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 32W 11D 27L across 70 games — 1.53 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Dordrecht against 1.53 for De Graafschap. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Dordrecht have managed 15W 10D 10L from their last 35 home games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 13W 6D 16L across their last 35 away games, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Dordrecht are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.60 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 70 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Current Season
De Graafschap
Current Season
Dordrecht (Home) vs De Graafschap (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dordrecht
Current Season
De Graafschap
Current Season
❓ Dordrecht vs De Graafschap Form FAQs
What form are Dordrecht and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 24W 20D 26L in their last 70 games (1.31 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 32W 11D 27L in their last 70 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or De Graafschap away?
Dordrecht's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 1.57 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Dordrecht or De Graafschap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dordrecht have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, De Graafschap in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Dordrecht and De Graafschap, the earliest from August 2022. They cover more than one competition — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie. The most recent was on 14 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: De Graafschap won Dordrecht 0-4 De Graafschap on 10 Mar 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dordrecht have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against De Graafschap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Dordrecht
5
Draws
3
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Dordrecht vs De Graafschap H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and De Graafschap?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Dordrecht have won 2, De Graafschap have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and De Graafschap last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 March 2026: De Graafschap 2-1 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 49% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 46%, De Graafschap 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Dordrecht and 71% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Dordrecht have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dordrecht vs De Graafschap Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dordrecht and De Graafschap matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Dordrecht's recent matches and 63% of De Graafschap's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Dordrecht and De Graafschap matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Dordrecht's matches and 71% of De Graafschap's.
Do Dordrecht and De Graafschap matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Dordrecht's recent matches and 80% of De Graafschap's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dordrecht edge out De Graafschap 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat De Graafschap 2-1 at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 33, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.84 xG and De Graafschap 1.01 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 1.01 / defence 0.71 against De Graafschap attack 1.05 / defence 1.12, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 56% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 20%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 59%, De Graafschap 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
De Graafschap's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dordrecht 1.31 PPG, De Graafschap 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dordrecht win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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