Dordrecht 2-1 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dordrecht at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dordrecht vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dordrecht and De Graafschap meet at M-Scores Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Friday 5 April 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dordrecht have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Dordrecht at M-Scores Stadion this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at M-Scores Stadion.
De Graafschap (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
De Graafschap's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form favours the hosts. Dordrecht's 2.10 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of De Graafschap's 1.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Dordrecht lead 0W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Dordrecht — key trading statistics (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
De Graafschap — key trading statistics (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 56% versus De Graafschap 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 59% | De Graafschap 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.84 xG and De Graafschap 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 1.009 / defence 0.707 | De Graafschap attack 1.055 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.618 / away 1.350. Dordrecht's defence rating of 0.707 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 70 Dordrecht games / 70 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 56% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 20%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | De Graafschap 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Dordrecht (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dordrecht are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Dordrecht 40% | De Graafschap 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: M-Scores Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 5 Apr 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 56% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 54% | xG Dordrecht 1.84 / De Graafschap 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 1.009 / def 0.707 | De Graafschap attack 1.055 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.618 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.01
De Graafschap xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs De Graafschap kick off?
Dordrecht vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 5 April 2024 at M-Scores Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs De Graafschap?
Dordrecht 2 - 1 De Graafschap.
Where is Dordrecht vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at M-Scores Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs De Graafschap part of?
Dordrecht vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 56% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Dordrecht and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and De Graafschap?
Record (3 meetings): Dordrecht 0W | Draws 2 | De Graafschap 1W.
What form are Dordrecht and De Graafschap in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. De Graafschap (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Dordrecht's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against De Graafschap's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.84. Flip it around — De Graafschap's attack (1.05x) against Dordrecht's defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
56%
1.78
24%
4.20
20%
5.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
2.84
1.01
De Graafschap xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
5.02
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
16%
6.27
Win to Nil
21%
4.86
3%
31.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 10.8 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.01 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs De Graafschap?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dordrecht's recent record stands at 24W 20D 26L from 70 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-W in the last five.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 32W 11D 27L across 70 games — 1.53 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Dordrecht against 1.53 for De Graafschap. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Dordrecht have managed 15W 10D 10L from 35 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 13W 6D 16L across 35 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Dordrecht are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.60 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 70 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Current Season
De Graafschap
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 24W 20D 26L in their last 70 games (1.31 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 32W 11D 27L in their last 70 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or De Graafschap away?
Dordrecht's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 1.57 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Dordrecht or De Graafschap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dordrecht have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, De Graafschap in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: De Graafschap won 0-4 on 10 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dordrecht have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against De Graafschap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Dordrecht
5
Draws
3
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 2, De Graafschap have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when De Graafschap 2-1 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 49% of the time.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 46%, De Graafschap 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Dordrecht and 71% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Dordrecht have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play De Graafschap?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Dordrecht's recent matches and 63% of De Graafschap's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dordrecht vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Dordrecht's matches and 71% of De Graafschap's.
Do Dordrecht and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dordrecht edge out De Graafschap 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat De Graafschap 2-1 at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 33, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.84 xG and De Graafschap 1.01 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 1.01 / defence 0.71 against De Graafschap attack 1.05 / defence 1.12, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 56% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 20%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 59%, De Graafschap 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
De Graafschap's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dordrecht 1.31 PPG, De Graafschap 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dordrecht win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.