FC Eindhoven 2-5 Jong PSV U21 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Eindhoven at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Jong PSV U21 travel to Jan Louwers Stadion to take on FC Eindhoven. The game is scheduled for Friday 12 April 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Eindhoven — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Jan Louwers Stadion, FC Eindhoven have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong PSV U21 have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong PSV U21 have posted 0W 3D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Eindhoven 0.80 PPG, Jong PSV U21 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for FC Eindhoven, 2 for Jong PSV U21 and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 4.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2023, ended 4–3 with FC Eindhoven winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
FC Eindhoven in-play tendencies (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
Jong PSV U21 in-play tendencies (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Eindhoven 54% and Jong PSV U21 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 51% | Jong PSV U21 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 1.61 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 0.696 / defence 1.151 | Jong PSV U21 attack 1.016 / defence 1.434. League average goals — home 1.615 / away 1.341. FC Eindhoven's attack strength of 0.696 is below the league average — the 1.61 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Jong PSV U21 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.434 — this is suppressing FC Eindhoven's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 71 FC Eindhoven games / 71 Jong PSV U21 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 38% | Draw 25% | Jong PSV U21 36%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Jong PSV U21 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Eindhoven are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Eindhoven offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.18 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: FC Eindhoven 30% | Jong PSV U21 70%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21 | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 12 Apr 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 38% | Draw 25% | Jong PSV U21 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG FC Eindhoven 1.61 / Jong PSV U21 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 0.696 / def 1.151 | Jong PSV U21 attack 1.016 / def 1.434 | league avg home 1.615 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Jong PSV U21 xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21 kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21 kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 12 April 2024 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21?
FC Eindhoven 2 - 5 Jong PSV U21.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21 being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21 part of?
FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21 is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 38% chance of winning, Jong PSV U21 a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both FC Eindhoven and Jong PSV U21 will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Jong PSV U21?
Record (5 meetings): FC Eindhoven 1W | Draws 2 | Jong PSV U21 2W.
What form are FC Eindhoven and Jong PSV U21 in?
FC Eindhoven (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Eindhoven's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Jong PSV U21's defensive record (1.43x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. The same calculation in reverse, Jong PSV U21's attack versus FC Eindhoven's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
38%
2.61
25%
3.97
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
3.18
1.57
Jong PSV U21 xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
21%
4.80
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
8%
12.51
7%
13.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.5 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.5 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.5 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and Jong PSV U21 expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.57 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Eindhoven's recent record stands at 23W 24D 24L from 71 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five.
Jong PSV U21, meanwhile, have gone 19W 16D 36L across 71 games — 1.03 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Eindhoven on 1.31 PPG, Jong PSV U21 on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Eindhoven have managed 13W 11D 11L from 35 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong PSV U21's away record stands at 7W 9D 19L across 35 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Jong PSV U21 are on 1.52 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 in 68%.
Last 71 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Current Season
Jong PSV U21
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and Jong PSV U21 in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 23W 24D 24L in their last 71 games (1.31 PPG), while Jong PSV U21 have gone 19W 16D 36L in their last 71 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or Jong PSV U21 away?
FC Eindhoven's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 1.43 PPG; Jong PSV U21 away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Eindhoven and Jong PSV U21 runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Eindhoven have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Dec 2025, when FC Eindhoven won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Eindhoven's record when hosting Jong PSV U21 specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
FC Eindhoven
2
Draws
3
Jong PSV U21
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Jong PSV U21?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 5, Jong PSV U21 have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and Jong PSV U21 last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Jong PSV U21 1-2 FC Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and Jong PSV U21?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Eindhoven 49%, Jong PSV U21 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (FC Eindhoven) and 69% (Jong PSV U21). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven have failed to score in 29% of games; Jong PSV U21 in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / Jong PSV U21 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play Jong PSV U21?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 49% of FC Eindhoven's games and 69% of Jong PSV U21's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 49% of FC Eindhoven's matches and 69% of Jong PSV U21's.
Do FC Eindhoven and Jong PSV U21 tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Jong PSV U21 in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Jong PSV U21 run riot with a 2-5 hammering of FC Eindhoven.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong PSV U21 beat FC Eindhoven 2-5 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 34, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 1.61 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.57 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 outscored their 1.57 projection by 3.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 0.70 / defence 1.15 against Jong PSV U21 attack 1.02 / defence 1.43, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 38% | Draw 25% | Jong PSV U21 36%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Jong PSV U21 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 51%, Jong PSV U21 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Eindhoven 1.31 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong PSV U21 win broke the near-deadlock. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.