Jong PSV U21 2-3 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Roda at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong PSV U21 vs Roda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong PSV U21 host Roda at PSV Campus De Herdgang in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 1 April 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jong PSV U21 — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Jong PSV U21 at PSV Campus De Herdgang this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Roda stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Roda away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Roda — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Jong PSV U21, 1 for Roda and 3 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2023, ended 1–2 with Roda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Jong PSV U21 in-play tendencies (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Roda in-play tendencies (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong PSV U21 67% and Roda 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong PSV U21 71% | Roda 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 1.23 xG and Roda 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.036 / defence 1.150 | Roda attack 1.035 / defence 0.738. League average goals — home 1.613 / away 1.341. Roda's defence strength of 0.738 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 69 Jong PSV U21 games / 69 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 29% | Draw 26% | Roda 45%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | Roda 2.22. Roda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Roda at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Roda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jong PSV U21 70% | Roda 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: PSV Campus De Herdgang • Kick-off: Monday 1 Apr 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 29% | Draw 26% | Roda 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Jong PSV U21 1.23 / Roda 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.036 / def 1.150 | Roda attack 1.035 / def 0.738 | league avg home 1.613 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: Roda (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Roda xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs Roda kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 1 April 2024 at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What was the final score in Jong PSV U21 vs Roda?
Jong PSV U21 2 - 3 Roda.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs Roda part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs Roda is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 29% chance of winning, Roda a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Jong PSV U21 vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Roda?
Record (5 meetings): Jong PSV U21 1W | Draws 3 | Roda 1W.
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Roda in?
Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Roda (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Jong PSV U21's attack rating (1.04) and Roda's defence rating (0.74), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus Jong PSV U21's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
29%
3.45
26%
3.87
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
2.83
1.60
Roda xG
3.45
29%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
20%
4.94
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
6%
17.06
13%
7.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 9.4 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.6 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.2 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 1.60 for Roda, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jong PSV U21 come into this having played 69 games, going 19W 16D 34L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Roda sit at 1.51 PPG from 69 outings (29W 17D 23L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five.
Roda carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Jong PSV U21 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Jong PSV U21's home form reads 11W 7D 16L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Roda have taken 1.18 points per game from 34 outings (10W 10D 14L).
Goals in Recent Form
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.52 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 69 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Current Season
Roda
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Roda in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 19W 16D 34L in their last 69 games (1.06 PPG), while Roda have gone 29W 17D 23L in their last 69 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or Roda away?
Jong PSV U21's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 1.18 PPG; Roda away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Apr 2023, when Jong PSV U21 won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong PSV U21's record when hosting Roda specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jong PSV U21
3
Draws
5
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong PSV U21 have won 2, Roda have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Roda 0-2 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Jong PSV U21 and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong PSV U21 68%, Roda 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Jong PSV U21 and 44% for Roda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Roda in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong PSV U21 play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Jong PSV U21's games and 50% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong PSV U21 vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 44% of Roda's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and Roda tend to score early?
Jong PSV U21 have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Roda in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Roda edge out Jong PSV U21 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat Jong PSV U21 2-3 at PSV Campus De Herdgang, Regular Season - 32, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.23 xG and Roda 1.60 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Roda outscored their 1.60 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 1.04 / defence 1.15 against Roda attack 1.03 / defence 0.74, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 29% | Draw 26% | Roda 45%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 71%, Roda 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Roda's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 1.06. That form edge translated into the three points. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Roda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.