Roda 2-1 VVV Venlo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Roda at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Roda vs VVV Venlo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
VVV Venlo make the trip to Parkstad Limburg Stadion to face Roda in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Sunday 7 April 2024 at 15:45 UTC.
Form
Roda (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Roda have posted 7W 3D 0L at Parkstad Limburg Stadion — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
VVV Venlo have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, VVV Venlo have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Roda's 2.10 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of VVV Venlo's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Roda, 0 for VVV Venlo and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Oct 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Roda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
VVV Venlo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Roda 57% and VVV Venlo 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 53% | VVV Venlo 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.97 xG and VVV Venlo 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 1.224 / defence 0.814 | VVV Venlo attack 0.727 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.620 / away 1.331. Data: 70 Roda games / 70 VVV Venlo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 64% | Draw 22% | VVV Venlo 14%. Fair-value odds: Roda 1.56 | Draw 4.55 | VVV Venlo 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Roda (64%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Roda as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Roda 60% | VVV Venlo 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs VVV Venlo | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Apr 2024, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 64% | Draw 22% | VVV Venlo 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 48% | xG Roda 1.97 / VVV Venlo 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 1.224 / def 0.814 | VVV Venlo attack 0.727 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.620 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Roda (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Roda xG
Expected Goals
0.79
VVV Venlo xG
48%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs VVV Venlo kick off?
Roda vs VVV Venlo kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 7 April 2024 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs VVV Venlo?
Roda 2 - 1 VVV Venlo.
Where is Roda vs VVV Venlo being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs VVV Venlo part of?
Roda vs VVV Venlo is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs VVV Venlo?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 64% chance of winning, VVV Venlo a 14% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs VVV Venlo?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Roda and VVV Venlo will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs VVV Venlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and VVV Venlo?
Record (5 meetings): Roda 1W | Draws 4 | VVV Venlo 0W.
What form are Roda and VVV Venlo in?
Roda (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. VVV Venlo (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Roda's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against VVV Venlo's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.97. Flip it around — VVV Venlo's attack (0.73x) against Roda's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 1-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
64%
1.55
22%
4.53
14%
7.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Roda xG
Total xG
2.75
0.79
VVV Venlo xG
1.55
64%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
7.38
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
14%
7.13
Win to Nil
29%
3.42
2%
52.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 9.9 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.7 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.1 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs VVV Venlo?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Roda and VVV Venlo expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Roda and 0.79 for VVV Venlo, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs VVV Venlo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Roda come into this having played 70 games, going 30W 17D 23L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-W.
On the other side, VVV Venlo sit at 1.43 PPG from 70 outings (26W 22D 22L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for Roda against 1.43 for VVV Venlo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Roda's home form reads 19W 7D 9L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return.
Away from home, VVV Venlo have taken 1.26 points per game from 35 outings (11W 11D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Roda are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; VVV Venlo are on 1.47 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VVV Venlo in 67%.
Last 70 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Current Season
VVV Venlo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and VVV Venlo in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 30W 17D 23L in their last 70 games (1.53 PPG), while VVV Venlo have gone 26W 22D 22L in their last 70 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or VVV Venlo away?
Roda's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.83 PPG; VVV Venlo away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 26 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won 4-1 on 7 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Roda have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against VVV Venlo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Roda
6
Draws
2
VVV Venlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and VVV Venlo?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 2, VVV Venlo have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Roda and VVV Venlo last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2026, when Roda 2-2 VVV Venlo.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 63%, VVV Venlo 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Roda) and 54% (VVV Venlo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VVV Venlo in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / VVV Venlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play VVV Venlo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Roda's games and 63% of VVV Venlo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Roda vs VVV Venlo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Roda's matches and 54% of VVV Venlo's.
Do Roda and VVV Venlo tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, VVV Venlo in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Roda edge out VVV Venlo 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat VVV Venlo 2-1 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 33, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.97 xG and VVV Venlo 0.79 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 1.22 / defence 0.81 against VVV Venlo attack 0.73 / defence 0.99, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 64% | Draw 22% | VVV Venlo 14%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 53%, VVV Venlo 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
VVV Venlo's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Roda 1.53 PPG, VVV Venlo 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Roda win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.