Jong Utrecht 1-1 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Willem II at 70% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong Utrecht vs Willem II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Willem II travel to Stadion Galgenwaard to take on Jong Utrecht in Eerste Divisie (matchday 33). The game is scheduled for Monday 8 April 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Jong Utrecht have gone 1W 1D 8L — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Jong Utrecht's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Willem II — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Willem II have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Willem II's 2.00 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Jong Utrecht's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Jong Utrecht have won 0, Willem II 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 Nov 2023, ended Jong Utrecht 1–2 Willem II — a Willem II win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Jong Utrecht trading profile (last 70 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Willem II trading profile (last 70 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Utrecht 44% versus Willem II 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 49% | Willem II 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Jong Utrecht surrender their half-time lead 47% of the time, while Willem II have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 57% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 0.66 xG and Willem II 2.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.627 / defence 1.208 | Willem II attack 1.287 / defence 0.652. League average goals — home 1.620 / away 1.332. Jong Utrecht's attack rating of 0.627 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.66. Willem II bring a tight defence (rating 0.652, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Jong Utrecht's projected output down. Willem II have an above-average attack rating of 1.287, which lifts their away xG to 2.07. Jong Utrecht's defence rating of 1.208 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Willem II's projected output up. Data: built from Jong Utrecht's last 70 games and Willem II's last 70.
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 10% | Draw 20% | Willem II 70%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 9.84 | Draw 4.97 | Willem II 1.43. The model has a clear lean to Willem II (70%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Willem II are the pick at 70% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Jong Utrecht's last 10 home games and Willem II's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Jong Utrecht 30% (last 10 home games) | Willem II 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs Willem II | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 33 | Venue: Stadion Galgenwaard • Kick-off: Monday 8 April 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 10% | Draw 20% | Willem II 70% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Jong Utrecht 0.66 / Willem II 2.07 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 0.627 / def 1.208 | Willem II attack 1.287 / def 0.652 | league avg home 1.620 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Willem II (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.66
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
2.07
Willem II xG
43%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Jong Utrecht vs Willem II FAQs
What time does Jong Utrecht vs Willem II kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs Willem II kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Monday 8 April 2024 at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs Willem II?
Jong Utrecht 1 - 1 Willem II.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs Willem II part of?
Jong Utrecht vs Willem II is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 33) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 10% chance of winning, Willem II a 70% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Jong Utrecht and Willem II will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Jong Utrecht vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Jong Utrecht's attack rating (0.63) and Willem II's defence rating (0.65), the model arrives at 0.66 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Willem II's attack versus Jong Utrecht's defence, projects 2.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Jong Utrecht's last 70 games and Willem II's last 70 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.3%), 1-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
10%
9.84
20%
4.97
70%
1.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
0 – 3
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.66
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
2.74
2.07
Willem II xG
9.84
10%
Home win
4.97
20%
Draw
1.43
70%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
13%
7.94
52%
1.94
Win to Nil
1%
78.16
36%
2.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 13.4 | 13.9 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 2.1 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 8.9 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 1.4 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Jong Utrecht vs Willem II Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 0.66 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 2.07 for Willem II, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs Willem II?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jong Utrecht's recent record stands at 12W 15D 43L from 70 games, a 0.73 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Willem II, meanwhile, have gone 40W 17D 13L across 70 games — 1.96 PPG, with L-W-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Willem II by 1.23 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Jong Utrecht heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Jong Utrecht have managed 9W 10D 15L from their last 34 home games — 1.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Willem II's away record stands at 15W 12D 7L across their last 34 away games, a 1.68 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Jong Utrecht are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.94 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II in 60%.
Last 70 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Current Season
Willem II
Current Season
Jong Utrecht (Home) vs Willem II (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Jong Utrecht
Current Season
Willem II
Current Season
❓ Jong Utrecht vs Willem II Form FAQs
What form are Jong Utrecht and Willem II in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 12W 15D 43L in their last 70 games (0.73 PPG), while Willem II have gone 40W 17D 13L in their last 70 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or Willem II away?
Willem II's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 1.09 PPG; Willem II away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Jong Utrecht or Willem II been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jong Utrecht have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Willem II in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from August 2022. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 16 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 12 May 2023, when Willem II won Willem II 3-0 Jong Utrecht.
Jong Utrecht's record when hosting Willem II specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Jong Utrecht
3
Draws
3
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Jong Utrecht vs Willem II H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Willem II?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Jong Utrecht have won 0, Willem II have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and Willem II last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 February 2026: Jong Utrecht 1-1 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and Willem II?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong Utrecht see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 62% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Utrecht 35%, Willem II 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Jong Utrecht) and 50% (Willem II).
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Jong Utrecht have failed to score in 47% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Jong Utrecht vs Willem II Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Jong Utrecht and Willem II matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Jong Utrecht's recent matches and 59% of Willem II's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Jong Utrecht and Willem II matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Jong Utrecht's recent games and 50% of Willem II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong Utrecht and Willem II matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 56% of Jong Utrecht's recent matches and 79% of Willem II's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong Utrecht and Willem II share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Utrecht and Willem II finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 33, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 0.66 xG and Willem II 2.07 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Willem II landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.63 / defence 1.21 against Willem II attack 1.29 / defence 0.65, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 10% | Draw 20% | Willem II 70%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 49%, Willem II 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Willem II's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 0.73. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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