Jong Utrecht 3-1 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Utrecht at 41%, yet in-form Dordrecht provide a compelling counter-argument — this Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong Utrecht host Dordrecht at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch in Eerste Divisie (matchday 33). Kick-off is Friday 20 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Jong Utrecht — last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
At home, Jong Utrecht have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Jong Utrecht are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Dordrecht have recorded 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Dordrecht away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Dordrecht's 1.80 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Jong Utrecht's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams have scored in at least 80% of each side's games (from Jong Utrecht's last 10 home games and Dordrecht's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 8 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Jong Utrecht, 4 for Dordrecht and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 28 Nov 2025, ended Jong Utrecht 2–1 Dordrecht — a Jong Utrecht win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Jong Utrecht trading profile (last 70 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; of the 32 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Dordrecht trading profile (last 70 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Utrecht 59% versus Dordrecht 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 57% | Dordrecht 59%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Jong Utrecht surrender their half-time lead 60% of the time, while Dordrecht have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 1.58 xG and Dordrecht 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 1.063 / defence 1.155 | Dordrecht attack 0.872 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.560 / away 1.448. Data: built from Jong Utrecht's last 70 games and Dordrecht's last 70.
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 41% | Draw 24% | Dordrecht 35%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 2.45 | Draw 4.16 | Dordrecht 2.84. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.58 / 1.46) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jong Utrecht as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dordrecht (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong Utrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Jong Utrecht's last 10 home games and Dordrecht's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Jong Utrecht 80% (last 10 home games) | Dordrecht 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 33 | Venue: Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch • Kick-off: Friday 20 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 41% | Draw 24% | Dordrecht 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Jong Utrecht 1.58 / Dordrecht 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 1.063 / def 1.155 | Dordrecht attack 0.872 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.560 / away 1.448 • Poisson stance: Jong Utrecht (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Dordrecht xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht FAQs
What time does Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 20 March 2026 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht?
Jong Utrecht 3 - 1 Dordrecht.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht part of?
Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 33) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 41% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 35% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jong Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Jong Utrecht and Dordrecht will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jong Utrecht's attack at 1.06x the league average against Dordrecht's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dordrecht's attack versus Jong Utrecht's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Jong Utrecht's last 70 games and Dordrecht's last 70 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Utrecht Win
41%
2.45
24%
4.16
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
3.04
1.46
Dordrecht xG
2.45
41%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
23%
4.30
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
9%
10.55
7%
13.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.0 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.7 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 1.46 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jong Utrecht come into this having played 70 games, going 13W 20D 37L for 0.84 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Dordrecht sit at 1.59 PPG from 70 outings (31W 18D 21L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-D across their last five.
Dordrecht carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Jong Utrecht — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Jong Utrecht's home form reads 9W 11D 15L across their last 35 home games, a 1.09 PPG return.
Away from home, Dordrecht have taken 1.31 points per game from their last 35 away games (13W 7D 15L).
The Goals Picture
Jong Utrecht are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.60 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 70 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Current Season
Dordrecht
Current Season
Jong Utrecht (Home) vs Dordrecht (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Jong Utrecht
Current Season
Dordrecht
Current Season
❓ Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht Form FAQs
What form are Jong Utrecht and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 13W 20D 37L in their last 70 games (0.84 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 31W 18D 21L in their last 70 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or Dordrecht away?
Dordrecht's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 1.09 PPG; Dordrecht away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Jong Utrecht or Dordrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jong Utrecht have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Dordrecht in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to January 2022. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 2 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jong Utrecht have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Jan 2022, when Dordrecht won Jong Utrecht 0-4 Dordrecht.
Jong Utrecht's record when hosting Dordrecht specifically: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Jong Utrecht
2
Draws
4
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Dordrecht?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Jong Utrecht have won 4, Dordrecht have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and Dordrecht last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 November 2026: Jong Utrecht 3-2 Dordrecht.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Utrecht 63%, Dordrecht 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Jong Utrecht) and 54% (Dordrecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht have failed to score in 29% of games; Dordrecht in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Jong Utrecht and Dordrecht matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Jong Utrecht's games and 49% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Jong Utrecht and Dordrecht matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Jong Utrecht's matches and 54% of Dordrecht's.
Do Jong Utrecht and Dordrecht matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Jong Utrecht's recent matches and 74% of Dordrecht's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong Utrecht cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Dordrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Utrecht beat Dordrecht 3-1 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Regular Season - 33, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 1.58 xG and Dordrecht 1.46 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Jong Utrecht beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 1.06 / defence 1.16 against Dordrecht attack 0.87 / defence 0.95, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 41% | Draw 24% | Dordrecht 35%, with Jong Utrecht to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 57%, Dordrecht 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Dordrecht's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.84. Form was overturned, with Jong Utrecht winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Dordrecht (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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