MVV 0-5 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Willem II at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this MVV vs Willem II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
MVV host Willem II at De Geusselt in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 March 2026 at 15:45 UTC.
Form Guide
MVV — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, MVV have posted 4W 4D 2L at De Geusselt — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — MVV are significantly better at De Geusselt than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Willem II stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Willem II's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Willem II — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. MVV register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant matches, Willem II in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, MVV have won 1, Willem II 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
MVV in-play and half-time data (69 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Willem II in-play and half-time data (69 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — MVV 54% versus Willem II 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (MVV 59% | Willem II 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects MVV 1.55 xG and Willem II 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: MVV attack 1.106 / defence 1.044 | Willem II attack 1.068 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.553 / away 1.476. Data: 70 MVV games / 31 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: MVV 36% | Draw 23% | Willem II 40%. Fair-value odds: MVV 2.78 | Draw 4.35 | Willem II 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Willem II at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Willem II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: MVV 90% | Willem II 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: MVV vs Willem II | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: De Geusselt • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Mar 2026, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: MVV 36% | Draw 23% | Willem II 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG MVV 1.55 / Willem II 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: MVV attack 1.106 / def 1.044 | Willem II attack 1.068 / def 0.905 | league avg home 1.553 / away 1.476 • Poisson stance: Willem II (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
MVV xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Willem II xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does MVV vs Willem II kick off?
MVV vs Willem II kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 22 March 2026 at De Geusselt.
What was the final score in MVV vs Willem II?
MVV 0 - 5 Willem II.
Where is MVV vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at De Geusselt.
What competition is MVV vs Willem II part of?
MVV vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win MVV vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives MVV a 36% chance of winning, Willem II a 40% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in MVV vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both MVV and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will MVV vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Willem II?
Record (5 meetings): MVV 1W | Draws 2 | Willem II 2W.
What form are MVV and Willem II in?
MVV (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-D-W-D. Willem II (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
MVV's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Willem II's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. The same calculation in reverse, Willem II's attack versus MVV's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
36%
2.75
23%
4.27
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
MVV xG
Total xG
3.20
1.65
Willem II xG
2.75
36%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
19%
5.19
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
7%
14.29
9%
11.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.7 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.4 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.1 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for MVV vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are MVV and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for MVV and 1.65 for Willem II, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for MVV vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
MVV's recent record stands at 19W 19D 31L from 69 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-D in the last five.
Willem II, meanwhile, have gone 21W 17D 31L across 69 games — 1.16 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: MVV on 1.10 PPG, Willem II on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, MVV have managed 15W 8D 10L from 33 games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.10 PPG overall — MVV are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Willem II's away record stands at 10W 8D 15L across 33 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, MVV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
MVV are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.25 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II in 61%.
Last 69 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
MVV
Current Season
Willem II
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are MVV and Willem II in coming into this match?
MVV have gone 19W 19D 31L in their last 69 games (1.10 PPG), while Willem II have gone 21W 17D 31L in their last 69 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — MVV at home or Willem II away?
MVV's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — MVV at home: 1.61 PPG; Willem II away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Mar 2026, when Willem II won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
MVV's record when hosting Willem II specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
MVV
2
Draws
3
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Willem II?
From 6 meetings on record, MVV have won 1, Willem II have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did MVV and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when MVV 0-5 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between MVV and Willem II?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — MVV 67%, Willem II 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for MVV and 54% for Willem II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = MVV home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when MVV play Willem II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of MVV's games and 61% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is MVV vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of MVV's matches and 54% of Willem II's.
Do MVV and Willem II tend to score early?
MVV have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Willem II in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Willem II run riot with a 0-5 hammering of MVV.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat MVV 0-5 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 33, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 1.55 xG and Willem II 1.65 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. MVV fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Willem II outscored their 1.65 projection by 3.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 1.11 / defence 1.04 against Willem II attack 1.07 / defence 0.91, drawn from 70/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it MVV 36% | Draw 23% | Willem II 40%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 59%, Willem II 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
MVV's trading profile (69 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Willem II's trading profile (69 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — MVV 1.10 PPG, Willem II 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Willem II win broke the near-deadlock. MVV (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.