Dordrecht 0-3 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Roda at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dordrecht vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dordrecht host Roda at M-Scores Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 3 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Dordrecht — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dordrecht have posted 3W 3D 4L at M-Scores Stadion — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Roda have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Roda's form when playing away from home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Dordrecht at 1.50 PPG versus Roda's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Dordrecht register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Roda in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Dordrecht have won 4, Roda 4, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2025, ended 2–1 with Dordrecht winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Dordrecht in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Roda in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 55% versus Roda 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 59% | Roda 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.33 xG and Roda 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 0.942 / defence 0.981 | Roda attack 1.080 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.508. Data: 71 Dordrecht games / 71 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 32% | Draw 24% | Roda 44%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 3.12 | Draw 4.17 | Roda 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Roda at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Roda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dordrecht 60% | Roda 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: M-Scores Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 3 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 32% | Draw 24% | Roda 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Dordrecht 1.33 / Roda 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 0.942 / def 0.981 | Roda attack 1.080 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.526 / away 1.508 • Poisson stance: Roda (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Roda xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs Roda kick off?
Dordrecht vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 3 April 2026 at M-Scores Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs Roda?
Dordrecht 0 - 3 Roda.
Where is Dordrecht vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at M-Scores Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs Roda part of?
Dordrecht vs Roda is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 32% chance of winning, Roda a 44% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Dordrecht and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Roda?
Record (8 meetings): Dordrecht 4W | Draws 0 | Roda 4W.
What form are Dordrecht and Roda in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Roda (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Dordrecht's attack rating (0.94) and Roda's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus Dordrecht's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
32%
3.14
24%
4.10
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
2.93
1.60
Roda xG
3.14
32%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
20%
4.94
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
6%
15.51
12%
8.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.5 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.4 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.6 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.60 for Roda, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 71 outings, Dordrecht have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 31W 18D 22L record — D-D-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Roda's form line: 25W 22D 24L from 71 games, 1.37 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dordrecht on 1.56 PPG, Roda on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Dordrecht have posted 1.86 PPG from 35 outings (18W 11D 6L).
On the road, Roda have gone 12W 11D 12L from 35 away games — 1.34 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dordrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dordrecht are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.41 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Roda in 61%.
Last 71 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Current Season
Roda
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and Roda in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 31W 18D 22L in their last 71 games (1.56 PPG), while Roda have gone 25W 22D 24L in their last 71 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or Roda away?
Dordrecht's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 1.86 PPG; Roda away: 1.34 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dordrecht and Roda runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Roda go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Mar 2022, when Roda won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dordrecht's record when hosting Roda specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Dordrecht
0
Draws
6
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 4, Roda have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Dordrecht 0-1 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 49% of the time.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Dordrecht at 60%, Roda at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Dordrecht and 69% for Roda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Dordrecht's games and 74% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dordrecht vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Dordrecht's matches and 69% of Roda's.
Do Dordrecht and Roda tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Roda in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Roda run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Dordrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat Dordrecht 0-3 at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 34, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.33 xG and Roda 1.60 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Dordrecht fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Roda outscored their 1.60 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 0.94 / defence 0.98 against Roda attack 1.08 / defence 0.93, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 32% | Draw 24% | Roda 44%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 59%, Roda 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Roda's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dordrecht 1.56 PPG, Roda 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Roda win broke the near-deadlock. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Roda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.