Roda 1-1 Helmond Sport – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Roda at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Roda vs Helmond Sport fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Helmond Sport make the trip to Parkstad Limburg Stadion to face Roda in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Friday 20 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Roda's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Roda's home record at Parkstad Limburg Stadion: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Helmond Sport (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Helmond Sport's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 4 wins for Roda, 3 for Helmond Sport and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.1 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2025, ended 3–1 with Roda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Roda — key trading statistics (70 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Helmond Sport — key trading statistics (70 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Roda 60% and Helmond Sport 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 59% | Helmond Sport 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.54 xG and Helmond Sport 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.789 / defence 1.066 | Helmond Sport attack 0.611 / defence 1.255. League average goals — home 1.560 / away 1.448. Roda's attack strength of 0.789 is below the league average — the 1.54 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Helmond Sport bring a strong defensive rating of 1.255 — this is suppressing Roda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 70 Roda games / 70 Helmond Sport games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 51% | Draw 26% | Helmond Sport 23%. Fair-value odds: Roda 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Helmond Sport 4.35. Roda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Roda at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Roda if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Roda 50% | Helmond Sport 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Helmond Sport | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 20 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 51% | Draw 26% | Helmond Sport 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG Roda 1.54 / Helmond Sport 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.789 / def 1.066 | Helmond Sport attack 0.611 / def 1.255 | league avg home 1.560 / away 1.448 • Poisson stance: Roda (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Roda xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Helmond Sport xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs Helmond Sport kick off?
Roda vs Helmond Sport kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 20 March 2026 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs Helmond Sport?
Roda 1 - 1 Helmond Sport.
Where is Roda vs Helmond Sport being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Helmond Sport part of?
Roda vs Helmond Sport is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Helmond Sport?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 51% chance of winning, Helmond Sport a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Helmond Sport?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Roda and Helmond Sport will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs Helmond Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Helmond Sport?
Record (8 meetings): Roda 4W | Draws 1 | Helmond Sport 3W.
What form are Roda and Helmond Sport in?
Roda (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Helmond Sport (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Roda's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Helmond Sport's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. Flip it around — Helmond Sport's attack (0.61x) against Roda's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
51%
1.95
26%
3.91
23%
4.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Roda xG
Total xG
2.49
0.94
Helmond Sport xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
4.34
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
20%
4.99
5%
20.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.1 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Helmond Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Roda and Helmond Sport expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Roda and 0.94 for Helmond Sport, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Helmond Sport?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 70 outings, Roda have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 25W 21D 24L record — W-D-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Helmond Sport's form line: 21W 16D 33L from 70 games, 1.13 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Roda against 1.13 for Helmond Sport. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Roda have posted 1.41 PPG from 34 outings (13W 9D 12L).
On the road, Helmond Sport have gone 7W 6D 21L from 34 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Roda are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Helmond Sport are on 1.29 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Roda have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Helmond Sport in 61%.
Last 70 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Current Season
Helmond Sport
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and Helmond Sport in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 25W 21D 24L in their last 70 games (1.37 PPG), while Helmond Sport have gone 21W 16D 33L in their last 70 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or Helmond Sport away?
Roda's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.41 PPG; Helmond Sport away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won 4-1 on 11 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Roda have gone 4W 1D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Helmond Sport — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Roda
2
Draws
3
Helmond Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Helmond Sport?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 5, Helmond Sport have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Helmond Sport last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Roda 2-1 Helmond Sport.
Who has won more matches between Roda and Helmond Sport?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 47%, Helmond Sport 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Roda) and 62% (Helmond Sport). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Helmond Sport in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Helmond Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play Helmond Sport?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Roda's recent matches and 56% of Helmond Sport's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Roda vs Helmond Sport usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Roda's matches and 62% of Helmond Sport's.
Do Roda and Helmond Sport tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Helmond Sport in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Roda and Helmond Sport share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 33, as Roda and Helmond Sport drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.54 xG and Helmond Sport 0.94 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.79 / defence 1.07 against Helmond Sport attack 0.61 / defence 1.25, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 51% | Draw 26% | Helmond Sport 23%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 59%, Helmond Sport 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Helmond Sport's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Roda 1.37 PPG, Helmond Sport 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.