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Poisson model favours ADO Den Haag (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as De Graafschap face ADO Den Haag.

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Match Analysis

De Graafschap host ADO Den Haag at De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 March 2026 at 11:15 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

De Graafschap at De Vijverberg this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, ADO Den Haag have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, ADO Den Haag have posted 7W 0D 3L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour ADO Den Haag — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

Despite the anticipated home advantage, ADO Den Haag have the better historical record — 5 wins from 9 previous contests against 1 for De Graafschap.

The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2025, ended 2–3 with ADO Den Haag winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. ADO Den Haag have won 5 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Data

De Graafschap trading profile (71 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.

ADO Den Haag trading profile (71 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 66% and ADO Den Haag 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 63% | ADO Den Haag 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.26 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.130 / defence 1.127 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.183 / defence 0.717. League average goals — home 1.555 / away 1.476. ADO Den Haag's defence strength of 0.717 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 69 De Graafschap games / 70 ADO Den Haag games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: De Graafschap 24% | Draw 22% | ADO Den Haag 54%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 4.17 | Draw 4.55 | ADO Den Haag 1.85. ADO Den Haag hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.26 / 1.97) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, ADO Den Haag are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on ADO Den Haag offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 3.23 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 70% | ADO Den Haag 40% BTTS from recent games.

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