Helmond Sport 1-1 FC OSS – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Helmond Sport at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Helmond Sport face FC OSS.

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Analysis & Preview

FC OSS travel to GS Staalwerken Stadion to take on Helmond Sport in Eerste Divisie (matchday 30). The game is scheduled for Friday 6 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Helmond Sport have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

In front of their own supporters, Helmond Sport have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

FC OSS — last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, FC OSS have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Helmond Sport 0.90 PPG, FC OSS 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 8 H2H matches, Helmond Sport have won 2, FC OSS 3, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 31 Oct 2025, ended Helmond Sport 3–0 FC OSS — a Helmond Sport win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Helmond Sport trading profile (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

FC OSS trading profile (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; of the 28 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helmond Sport 63% versus FC OSS 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helmond Sport 64% | FC OSS 48%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Helmond Sport surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while FC OSS have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 32% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Helmond Sport 1.45 xG and FC OSS 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helmond Sport attack 0.955 / defence 1.050 | FC OSS attack 0.719 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.673 / away 1.455. FC OSS's attack rating of 0.719 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.10. Data: built from Helmond Sport's last 67 games and FC OSS's last 67.

Result probabilities: Helmond Sport 45% | Draw 28% | FC OSS 28%. Fair-value odds: Helmond Sport 2.24 | Draw 3.63 | FC OSS 3.59. Helmond Sport hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Helmond Sport as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Helmond Sport offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Helmond Sport 80% (last 10 home games) | FC OSS 50% (last 10 away games).

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