VVV Venlo 0-3 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this VVV Venlo vs Waalwijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
VVV Venlo host Waalwijk at Seacon - De Koel in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 6 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, VVV Venlo stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, VVV Venlo have posted 3W 1D 6L at Seacon - De Koel — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Waalwijk — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Waalwijk have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: VVV Venlo 1.30 PPG, Waalwijk 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for VVV Venlo, 0 for Waalwijk and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2025, ended 2–1 with VVV Venlo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
VVV Venlo in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Waalwijk in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VVV Venlo 51% versus Waalwijk 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VVV Venlo 60% | Waalwijk 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VVV Venlo 1.32 xG and Waalwijk 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VVV Venlo attack 0.813 / defence 0.982 | Waalwijk attack 1.036 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.673 / away 1.455. Data: 67 VVV Venlo games / 29 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VVV Venlo 33% | Draw 26% | Waalwijk 40%. Fair-value odds: VVV Venlo 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Waalwijk 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Waalwijk are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waalwijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: VVV Venlo 40% | Waalwijk 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VVV Venlo vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Seacon - De Koel • Kick-off: Friday 6 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VVV Venlo 33% | Draw 26% | Waalwijk 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG VVV Venlo 1.32 / Waalwijk 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: VVV Venlo attack 0.813 / def 0.982 | Waalwijk attack 1.036 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.673 / away 1.455 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
VVV Venlo xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Waalwijk xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VVV Venlo vs Waalwijk kick off?
VVV Venlo vs Waalwijk kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 6 March 2026 at Seacon - De Koel.
What was the final score in VVV Venlo vs Waalwijk?
VVV Venlo 0 - 3 Waalwijk.
Where is VVV Venlo vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Seacon - De Koel.
What competition is VVV Venlo vs Waalwijk part of?
VVV Venlo vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win VVV Venlo vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives VVV Venlo a 33% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in VVV Venlo vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both VVV Venlo and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will VVV Venlo vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and Waalwijk?
Record (1 meetings): VVV Venlo 1W | Draws 0 | Waalwijk 0W.
What form are VVV Venlo and Waalwijk in?
VVV Venlo (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Waalwijk (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from VVV Venlo's attack rating (0.81) and Waalwijk's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Waalwijk's attack versus VVV Venlo's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
33%
3.02
26%
3.78
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
VVV Venlo xG
Total xG
2.80
1.48
Waalwijk xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
23%
4.40
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
8%
13.28
11%
9.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.9 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.8 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VVV Venlo vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are VVV Venlo and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for VVV Venlo and 1.48 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for VVV Venlo vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
VVV Venlo's recent record stands at 22W 10D 31L from 63 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-L in the last five.
Waalwijk, meanwhile, have gone 17W 15D 31L across 63 games — 1.05 PPG, with W-L-L-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: VVV Venlo on 1.21 PPG, Waalwijk on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, VVV Venlo have managed 11W 5D 15L from 31 games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Waalwijk's away record stands at 6W 8D 17L across 31 trips, a 0.84 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
VVV Venlo are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.44 scored and 1.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk in 67%.
Last 63 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VVV Venlo
Current Season
Waalwijk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VVV Venlo and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
VVV Venlo have gone 22W 10D 31L in their last 63 games (1.21 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 17W 15D 31L in their last 63 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VVV Venlo at home or Waalwijk away?
VVV Venlo's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VVV Venlo at home: 1.23 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between VVV Venlo and Waalwijk runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
VVV Venlo
0
Draws
1
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and Waalwijk?
From 2 meetings on record, VVV Venlo have won 1, Waalwijk have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did VVV Venlo and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when VVV Venlo 0-3 Waalwijk.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VVV Venlo see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VVV Venlo 48%, Waalwijk 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (VVV Venlo) and 64% (Waalwijk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VVV Venlo have failed to score in 36% of games; Waalwijk in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VVV Venlo home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VVV Venlo play Waalwijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of VVV Venlo's games and 71% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VVV Venlo vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of VVV Venlo's matches and 64% of Waalwijk's.
Do VVV Venlo and Waalwijk tend to score early?
VVV Venlo have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Waalwijk run riot with a 0-3 hammering of VVV Venlo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waalwijk beat VVV Venlo 0-3 at Seacon - De Koel, Regular Season - 30, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VVV Venlo 1.32 xG and Waalwijk 1.48 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. VVV Venlo fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Waalwijk outscored their 1.48 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VVV Venlo attack 0.81 / defence 0.98 against Waalwijk attack 1.04 / defence 0.97, drawn from 67/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VVV Venlo 33% | Draw 26% | Waalwijk 40%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VVV Venlo 60%, Waalwijk 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VVV Venlo's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Waalwijk's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VVV Venlo 1.21 PPG, Waalwijk 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Waalwijk win broke the near-deadlock. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Waalwijk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.