Jong AZ 2-3 Emmen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong AZ vs Emmen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jong AZ and Emmen meet at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Monday 9 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jong AZ's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jong AZ have posted 1W 1D 8L at AFAS Trainingscomplex — 0.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.40 lags behind their overall 1.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at AFAS Trainingscomplex this season.
Emmen (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Emmen have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Jong AZ, 0.80 for Emmen — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Jong AZ 2W, Emmen 3W, 2D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2025, ended 2–4 with Emmen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Jong AZ goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Emmen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong AZ 65% versus Emmen 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong AZ 70% | Emmen 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.73 xG and Emmen 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 0.914 / defence 1.384 | Emmen attack 0.761 / defence 1.168. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.464. Data: 67 Jong AZ games / 66 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 42% | Draw 24% | Emmen 34%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 2.38 | Draw 4.17 | Emmen 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong AZ are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong AZ if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.27 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jong AZ 50% | Emmen 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Monday 9 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 42% | Draw 24% | Emmen 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG Jong AZ 1.73 / Emmen 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 0.914 / def 1.384 | Emmen attack 0.761 / def 1.168 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.464 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Emmen xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs Emmen kick off?
Jong AZ vs Emmen kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 9 March 2026 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs Emmen?
Jong AZ 2 - 3 Emmen.
Where is Jong AZ vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs Emmen part of?
Jong AZ vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 42% chance of winning, Emmen a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Jong AZ and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Emmen?
Record (7 meetings): Jong AZ 2W | Draws 2 | Emmen 3W.
What form are Jong AZ and Emmen in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Emmen (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Jong AZ's attack at 0.91x the league average against Emmen's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Emmen's attack (0.76x) against Jong AZ's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 67/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
42%
2.39
24%
4.12
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
3.27
1.54
Emmen xG
2.39
42%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
21%
4.67
18%
5.63
Win to Nil
9%
11.18
6%
16.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.1 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.54 for Emmen, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs Emmen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jong AZ come into this having played 66 games, going 22W 13D 31L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-L.
On the other side, Emmen sit at 1.35 PPG from 66 outings (26W 11D 29L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Jong AZ against 1.35 for Emmen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Jong AZ's home form reads 7W 7D 18L across 32 games on their own ground, a 0.88 PPG return.
Away from home, Emmen have taken 1.22 points per game from 32 outings (12W 3D 17L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jong AZ are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.50 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 66 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Current Season
Emmen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and Emmen in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 22W 13D 31L in their last 66 games (1.20 PPG), while Emmen have gone 26W 11D 29L in their last 66 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or Emmen away?
Emmen's away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 0.88 PPG; Emmen away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Emmen have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Emmen won 3-0 on 8 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong AZ have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Emmen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Jong AZ
2
Draws
5
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Emmen?
From 9 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 2, Emmen have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Emmen 3-1 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and Emmen?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 66%, Emmen 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Jong AZ and 59% for Emmen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Emmen in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play Emmen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Jong AZ's games and 47% of Emmen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong AZ vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Jong AZ's matches and 59% of Emmen's.
Do Jong AZ and Emmen tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Emmen in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Emmen defy the odds to beat Jong AZ 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat Jong AZ 2-3 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 30, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.73 xG and Emmen 1.54 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Emmen outscored their 1.54 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 0.91 / defence 1.38 against Emmen attack 0.76 / defence 1.17, drawn from 67/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 42% | Draw 24% | Emmen 34%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Emmen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 70%, Emmen 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Emmen's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.20 PPG, Emmen 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Emmen win broke the near-deadlock. Jong AZ (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Emmen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.