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Poisson model favours Willem II (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FC OSS face Willem II.

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Full Analysis

Frans Heesen Stadion plays host to FC OSS versus Willem II in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Friday 13 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

FC OSS have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

FC OSS's home record at Frans Heesen Stadion: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Willem II's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W L W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Willem II's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On a straight form reading, Willem II are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC OSS have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Willem II in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

Across the last 5 meetings, Willem II have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to FC OSS's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Willem II have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Data

FC OSS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

Willem II goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC OSS 50% versus Willem II 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 47% | Willem II 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.26 xG and Willem II 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 0.874 / defence 1.146 | Willem II attack 0.981 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.620 / away 1.476. Data: 68 FC OSS games / 30 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FC OSS 28% | Draw 25% | Willem II 46%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 3.57 | Draw 4.00 | Willem II 2.17. Willem II hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Willem II as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Willem II if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC OSS 60% | Willem II 60% BTTS from recent games.

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