🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates FC Eindhoven at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

FC Eindhoven host Jong Ajax at Jan Louwers Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 6 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Guide

FC Eindhoven — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

FC Eindhoven at Jan Louwers Stadion this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong Ajax stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Jong Ajax have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Eindhoven 1.30 PPG, Jong Ajax 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, FC Eindhoven have won 3, Jong Ajax 2, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2025, ended 3–1 with FC Eindhoven winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

FC Eindhoven trading profile (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

Jong Ajax trading profile (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Eindhoven 46% versus Jong Ajax 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 61% | Jong Ajax 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 2.04 xG and Jong Ajax 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 1.173 / defence 1.080 | Jong Ajax attack 0.749 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.673 / away 1.455. Data: 67 FC Eindhoven games / 67 Jong Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 57% | Draw 22% | Jong Ajax 21%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Jong Ajax 4.76. The model has a clear lean to FC Eindhoven (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.04 / 1.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates FC Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.22 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Eindhoven 50% | Jong Ajax 70% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights