Roda 0-2 Jong PSV U21 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Roda at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Roda vs Jong PSV U21 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Jong PSV U21 travel to Parkstad Limburg Stadion to take on Roda. The game is scheduled for Friday 6 March 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Roda stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Roda have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Parkstad Limburg Stadion this season.
Jong PSV U21 — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Jong PSV U21's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Roda 1.80 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Roda register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Jong PSV U21 in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Roda have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 9 past contests while Jong PSV U21 have managed just 1 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with Roda winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Roda and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Roda in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Jong PSV U21 in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Roda 61% and Jong PSV U21 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Roda 61% | Jong PSV U21 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 2.08 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.939 / defence 1.074 | Jong PSV U21 attack 1.205 / defence 1.325. League average goals — home 1.673 / away 1.455. Jong PSV U21 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.325 — this is suppressing Roda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Jong PSV U21 have an above-average attack strength of 1.205 — the away xG of 1.88 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 67 Roda games / 67 Jong PSV U21 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 43% | Draw 22% | Jong PSV U21 35%. Fair-value odds: Roda 2.33 | Draw 4.55 | Jong PSV U21 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 75% | Total xG 3.96. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.96 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% reflects that both xG figures (2.08 / 1.88) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Roda are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Roda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 76% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 75%. Form rates corroborate: Roda 60% | Jong PSV U21 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Jong PSV U21 | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 6 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 43% | Draw 22% | Jong PSV U21 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 75% | xG Roda 2.08 / Jong PSV U21 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.939 / def 1.074 | Jong PSV U21 attack 1.205 / def 1.325 | league avg home 1.673 / away 1.455 • Poisson stance: Roda (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.88
Jong PSV U21 xG
75%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs Jong PSV U21 kick off?
Roda vs Jong PSV U21 kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 6 March 2026 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs Jong PSV U21?
Roda 0 - 2 Jong PSV U21.
Where is Roda vs Jong PSV U21 being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Jong PSV U21 part of?
Roda vs Jong PSV U21 is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Jong PSV U21?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 43% chance of winning, Jong PSV U21 a 35% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Jong PSV U21?
Our model estimates a 75% probability that both Roda and Jong PSV U21 will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs Jong PSV U21 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Jong PSV U21?
Record (9 meetings): Roda 5W | Draws 3 | Jong PSV U21 1W.
What form are Roda and Jong PSV U21 in?
Roda (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Roda's attack rating (0.94) and Jong PSV U21's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 2.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jong PSV U21's attack versus Roda's defence, projects 1.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.7%), 2-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
43%
2.32
22%
4.64
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.4%
Draw
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Roda xG
Total xG
3.96
1.88
Jong PSV U21 xG
2.32
43%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
75%
BTTS Yes
1.34
25%
BTTS No
3.94
Clean Sheet
15%
6.57
12%
8.02
Win to Nil
7%
15.25
4%
22.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.7 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Jong PSV U21?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are Roda and Jong PSV U21 expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Roda and 1.88 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 3.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Jong PSV U21?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 67 outings, Roda have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 25W 20D 22L record — W-L-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Jong PSV U21's form line: 22W 11D 34L from 67 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Roda on 1.42 PPG, Jong PSV U21 on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Roda have posted 1.48 PPG from 33 outings (13W 10D 10L).
On the road, Jong PSV U21 have gone 10W 5D 18L from 33 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Roda are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Jong PSV U21 are on 1.70 scored and 2.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Roda have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Jong PSV U21 in 70%.
Last 67 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Current Season
Jong PSV U21
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and Jong PSV U21 in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 25W 20D 22L in their last 67 games (1.42 PPG), while Jong PSV U21 have gone 22W 11D 34L in their last 67 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or Jong PSV U21 away?
Roda's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.48 PPG; Jong PSV U21 away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Roda and Jong PSV U21 runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Apr 2023, when Jong PSV U21 won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Roda's record when hosting Jong PSV U21 specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Roda
3
Draws
2
Jong PSV U21
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Jong PSV U21?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 5, Jong PSV U21 have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Jong PSV U21 last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Roda 0-2 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Roda and Jong PSV U21?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 48%, Jong PSV U21 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Roda and 70% for Jong PSV U21. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Jong PSV U21 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play Jong PSV U21?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Roda's games and 64% of Jong PSV U21's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Roda vs Jong PSV U21 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Roda's matches and 70% of Jong PSV U21's.
Do Roda and Jong PSV U21 tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Jong PSV U21 in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong PSV U21 cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Roda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong PSV U21 beat Roda 0-2 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 2.08 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.88 xG, a combined 3.96. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Roda fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.94 / defence 1.07 against Jong PSV U21 attack 1.21 / defence 1.32, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 43% | Draw 22% | Jong PSV U21 35%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Jong PSV U21 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 61%, Jong PSV U21 76%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Roda 1.42 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong PSV U21 win broke the near-deadlock. Roda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.