Groningen 4-2 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Groningen at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Groningen vs De Graafschap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Groningen welcome De Graafschap to Euroborg in Eerste Divisie (matchday 30). Kick-off is Friday 15 March 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Groningen have gone 8W 1D 1L — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home, Groningen have gone 7W 3D 0L in their last 10 home games (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Looking at their last 10 matches, De Graafschap stand at 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, De Graafschap have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On current form, Groningen have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Groningen, 1 for De Graafschap and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 20 Oct 2023, ended Groningen 1–2 De Graafschap — a De Graafschap win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Groningen in-play tendencies (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
De Graafschap in-play tendencies (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 49% versus De Graafschap 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 60% | De Graafschap 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.70 xG and De Graafschap 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 1.073 / defence 0.740 | De Graafschap attack 0.998 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.616 / away 1.339. Groningen have a tight defence (rating 0.740), which is pulling De Graafschap's projected output down. Data: built from Groningen's last 29 games and De Graafschap's last 68.
Result probabilities: Groningen 53% | Draw 26% | De Graafschap 21%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 1.89 | Draw 3.79 | De Graafschap 4.83. Groningen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Groningen as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Groningen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Groningen's last 10 home games and De Graafschap's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Groningen 50% (last 10 home games) | De Graafschap 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 30 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Friday 15 March 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 53% | Draw 26% | De Graafschap 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Groningen 1.70 / De Graafschap 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 1.073 / def 0.740 | De Graafschap attack 0.998 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.616 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Groningen (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
0.99
De Graafschap xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Groningen vs De Graafschap FAQs
What time does Groningen vs De Graafschap kick off?
Groningen vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 15 March 2024 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs De Graafschap?
Groningen 4 - 2 De Graafschap.
Where is Groningen vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs De Graafschap part of?
Groningen vs De Graafschap is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 30) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 53% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Groningen and De Graafschap will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Groningen vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Groningen's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against De Graafschap's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus Groningen's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Groningen's last 29 games and De Graafschap's last 68 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
53%
1.89
26%
3.79
21%
4.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Groningen xG
Total xG
2.69
0.99
De Graafschap xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
4.83
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
18%
5.48
Win to Nil
20%
5.08
4%
26.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.4 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Groningen vs De Graafschap Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Groningen and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Groningen and 0.99 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Groningen come into this having played 63 games, going 20W 12D 31L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W.
On the other side, De Graafschap sit at 1.59 PPG from 63 outings (30W 10D 23L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-L across their last five.
De Graafschap carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Groningen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Groningen's home form reads 12W 6D 13L across their last 31 home games, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, De Graafschap have taken 1.35 points per game from their last 31 away games (12W 6D 13L).
The Goals Picture
Groningen are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.63 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Current Season
De Graafschap
Current Season
Groningen (Home) vs De Graafschap (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Groningen
Current Season
De Graafschap
Current Season
❓ Groningen vs De Graafschap Form FAQs
What form are Groningen and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 20W 12D 31L in their last 63 games (1.14 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 30W 10D 23L in their last 63 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or De Graafschap away?
Groningen's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 1.35 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Groningen or De Graafschap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Groningen have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, De Graafschap in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2023. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent in our data was on 15 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Groningen
0
Draws
1
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Groningen vs De Graafschap H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and De Graafschap?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Groningen have won 1, De Graafschap have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and De Graafschap last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 March 2024: Groningen 4-2 De Graafschap.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 45%, De Graafschap 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Groningen and 71% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Groningen have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Groningen vs De Graafschap Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Groningen and De Graafschap matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Groningen's recent matches and 61% of De Graafschap's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Groningen and De Graafschap matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Groningen's matches and 71% of De Graafschap's.
Do Groningen and De Graafschap matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Groningen's recent matches and 81% of De Graafschap's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Groningen cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over De Graafschap.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Groningen beat De Graafschap 4-2 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 30, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.70 xG and De Graafschap 0.99 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Groningen beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. De Graafschap outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 1.07 / defence 0.74 against De Graafschap attack 1.00 / defence 0.98, drawn from 29/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 53% | Draw 26% | De Graafschap 21%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 60%, De Graafschap 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
De Graafschap's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.14. Form was overturned, with Groningen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Groningen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm. De Graafschap (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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