FC OSS 1-0 Helmond Sport – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Helmond Sport at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC OSS vs Helmond Sport fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 30 as FC OSS welcome Helmond Sport to Frans Heesen Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 15 March 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC OSS have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
FC OSS at Frans Heesen Stadion this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Helmond Sport stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Helmond Sport's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC OSS at 1.50 PPG versus Helmond Sport's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, FC OSS have won 2, Helmond Sport 0, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
FC OSS trading profile (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Helmond Sport trading profile (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC OSS 46% versus Helmond Sport 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 59% | Helmond Sport 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.19 xG and Helmond Sport 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 0.750 / defence 1.337 | Helmond Sport attack 0.821 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.616 / away 1.339. FC OSS's attack strength of 0.750 is below the league average — the 1.19 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 68 FC OSS games / 68 Helmond Sport games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 29% | Draw 28% | Helmond Sport 42%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 3.45 | Draw 3.57 | Helmond Sport 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Helmond Sport as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Helmond Sport offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC OSS 50% | Helmond Sport 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs Helmond Sport | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 15 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 29% | Draw 28% | Helmond Sport 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG FC OSS 1.19 / Helmond Sport 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 0.750 / def 1.337 | Helmond Sport attack 0.821 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.616 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Helmond Sport (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Helmond Sport xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs Helmond Sport kick off?
FC OSS vs Helmond Sport kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 15 March 2024 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs Helmond Sport?
FC OSS 1 - 0 Helmond Sport.
Where is FC OSS vs Helmond Sport being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs Helmond Sport part of?
FC OSS vs Helmond Sport is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs Helmond Sport?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 29% chance of winning, Helmond Sport a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Helmond Sport the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs Helmond Sport?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both FC OSS and Helmond Sport will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs Helmond Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Helmond Sport?
Record (5 meetings): FC OSS 2W | Draws 3 | Helmond Sport 0W.
What form are FC OSS and Helmond Sport in?
FC OSS (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Helmond Sport (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FC OSS's attack at 0.75x the league average against Helmond Sport's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Helmond Sport's attack versus FC OSS's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Helmond Sport Win
29%
3.40
28%
3.53
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
FC OSS xG
Total xG
2.66
1.47
Helmond Sport xG
3.40
29%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
23%
4.35
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
7%
14.77
13%
7.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.3 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.2 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs Helmond Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are FC OSS and Helmond Sport expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.47 for Helmond Sport, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs Helmond Sport?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 68 outings, FC OSS have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 18W 9D 41L record — W-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Helmond Sport's form line: 22W 18D 28L from 68 games, 1.24 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC OSS on 0.93 PPG, Helmond Sport on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FC OSS have posted 1.09 PPG from 33 outings (11W 3D 19L).
On the road, Helmond Sport have gone 7W 9D 17L from 33 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
FC OSS are averaging 1.01 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Helmond Sport are on 1.24 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Current Season
Helmond Sport
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and Helmond Sport in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 18W 9D 41L in their last 68 games (0.93 PPG), while Helmond Sport have gone 22W 18D 28L in their last 68 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or Helmond Sport away?
FC OSS's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.09 PPG; Helmond Sport away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC OSS and Helmond Sport runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Oct 2025, when Helmond Sport won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC OSS's record when hosting Helmond Sport specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC OSS
5
Draws
2
Helmond Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Helmond Sport?
From 10 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 3, Helmond Sport have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and Helmond Sport last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Helmond Sport 1-1 FC OSS.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and Helmond Sport?
FC OSS have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC OSS 48%, Helmond Sport 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (FC OSS) and 48% (Helmond Sport). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC OSS have failed to score in 30% of games; Helmond Sport in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / Helmond Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play Helmond Sport?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of FC OSS's recent matches and 48% of Helmond Sport's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC OSS vs Helmond Sport usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of FC OSS's matches and 48% of Helmond Sport's.
Do FC OSS and Helmond Sport tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Helmond Sport in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC OSS defy the odds to beat Helmond Sport 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC OSS beat Helmond Sport 1-0 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.19 xG and Helmond Sport 1.47 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Helmond Sport landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.75 / defence 1.34 against Helmond Sport attack 0.82 / defence 0.98, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 29% | Draw 28% | Helmond Sport 42%, with Helmond Sport to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual FC OSS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 59%, Helmond Sport 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Helmond Sport's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC OSS 0.93 PPG, Helmond Sport 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC OSS win broke the near-deadlock. FC OSS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.