Den Bosch 1-4 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Willem II at 61% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Den Bosch vs Willem II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion De Vliert plays host to Den Bosch versus Willem II in Eerste Divisie (matchday 30). Kick-off: Friday 15 March 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Den Bosch have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Den Bosch have gone 1W 5D 4L in their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Willem II (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Willem II's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
On a straight form reading, Willem II are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Den Bosch, 2 for Willem II and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 15 Oct 2023, ended Den Bosch 1–3 Willem II — a Willem II win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Den Bosch — key trading statistics (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
Willem II — key trading statistics (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 52% versus Willem II 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 64% | Willem II 61%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Den Bosch surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while Willem II have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 57% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 0.80 xG and Willem II 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.700 / defence 1.191 | Willem II attack 1.157 / defence 0.703. League average goals — home 1.616 / away 1.339. Den Bosch's attack rating of 0.700 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.80. Willem II bring a tight defence (rating 0.703, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Den Bosch's projected output down. Data: built from Den Bosch's last 67 games and Willem II's last 67.
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 14% | Draw 24% | Willem II 61%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 6.91 | Draw 4.11 | Willem II 1.63. The model has a clear lean to Willem II (61%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Willem II as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Den Bosch 60% (last 10 home games) | Willem II 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Willem II | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 30 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 15 March 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 14% | Draw 24% | Willem II 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Den Bosch 0.80 / Willem II 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.700 / def 1.191 | Willem II attack 1.157 / def 0.703 | league avg home 1.616 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Willem II (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.85
Willem II xG
47%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Den Bosch vs Willem II FAQs
What time does Den Bosch vs Willem II kick off?
Den Bosch vs Willem II kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 15 March 2024 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs Willem II?
Den Bosch 1 - 4 Willem II.
Where is Den Bosch vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Willem II part of?
Den Bosch vs Willem II is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 30) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 14% chance of winning, Willem II a 61% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Den Bosch and Willem II will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Den Bosch vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Den Bosch's attack at 0.70x the league average against Willem II's defence at 0.70x — combine the two and it projects 0.80 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Willem II's attack (1.16x) against Den Bosch's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.85.
These ratings are built from Den Bosch's last 67 games and Willem II's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.8%), 0-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
14%
6.91
24%
4.11
61%
1.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.1%
Away win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
2.64
1.85
Willem II xG
6.91
14%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
1.63
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
16%
6.33
45%
2.21
Win to Nil
2%
43.75
28%
3.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 13.2 | 12.1 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.5 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Den Bosch vs Willem II Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.85 for Willem II, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Willem II?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Den Bosch come into this having played 67 games, going 15W 13D 39L for 0.87 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-W.
On the other side, Willem II sit at 1.91 PPG from 67 outings (37W 17D 13L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five.
Willem II carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.04 PPG clear of Den Bosch — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Den Bosch's home form reads 10W 8D 15L across their last 33 home games, a 1.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Willem II have taken 1.58 points per game from their last 33 away games (13W 13D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Den Bosch are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 2.04 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.91 scored and 1.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II in 61%.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Current Season
Willem II
Current Season
Den Bosch (Home) vs Willem II (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Den Bosch
Current Season
Willem II
Current Season
❓ Den Bosch vs Willem II Form FAQs
What form are Den Bosch and Willem II in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 15W 13D 39L in their last 67 games (0.87 PPG), while Willem II have gone 37W 17D 13L in their last 67 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Willem II away?
Willem II's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.15 PPG; Willem II away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Den Bosch or Willem II been keeping clean sheets recently?
Den Bosch have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Willem II in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Den Bosch and Willem II, the earliest from October 2022. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 8 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Willem II won Den Bosch 1-4 Willem II on 15 Mar 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Den Bosch have gone 1W 0D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Willem II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Den Bosch
1
Draws
3
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Den Bosch vs Willem II H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Willem II?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Den Bosch have won 2, Willem II have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Willem II last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 March 2026: Willem II 1-1 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Willem II?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 62% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 61%, Willem II 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Den Bosch) and 48% (Willem II). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II in 30%; Den Bosch have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Den Bosch vs Willem II Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Den Bosch and Willem II matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Den Bosch's games and 58% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Den Bosch and Willem II matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Den Bosch's matches and 48% of Willem II's.
Do Den Bosch and Willem II matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Den Bosch's recent matches and 76% of Willem II's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Willem II run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Den Bosch.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat Den Bosch 1-4 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 30, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 0.80 xG and Willem II 1.85 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Willem II outscored their 1.85 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.70 / defence 1.19 against Willem II attack 1.16 / defence 0.70, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 14% | Draw 24% | Willem II 61%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 64%, Willem II 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Willem II's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 0.87. Form held, and they took the win. Den Bosch (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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