Telstar 3-1 ADO Den Haag – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours ADO Den Haag (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Telstar face ADO Den Haag.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Telstar host ADO Den Haag at 711 Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 15 March 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Telstar — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Telstar's home record at 711 Stadion: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, ADO Den Haag stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, ADO Den Haag have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. ADO Den Haag are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
ADO Den Haag have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 5 encounters against Telstar's 0 victories.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that ADO Den Haag have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Telstar in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
ADO Den Haag in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Telstar 49% versus ADO Den Haag 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Telstar 46% | ADO Den Haag 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Telstar 1.26 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Telstar attack 0.844 / defence 1.065 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.200 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.616 / away 1.339. Data: 67 Telstar games / 68 ADO Den Haag games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Telstar 27% | Draw 26% | ADO Den Haag 47%. Fair-value odds: Telstar 3.70 | Draw 3.85 | ADO Den Haag 2.13. ADO Den Haag hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.26 / 1.71) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is ADO Den Haag at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on ADO Den Haag offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Telstar 70% | ADO Den Haag 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Telstar vs ADO Den Haag | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: 711 Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 15 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Telstar 27% | Draw 26% | ADO Den Haag 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Telstar 1.26 / ADO Den Haag 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Telstar attack 0.844 / def 1.065 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.200 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.616 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: ADO Den Haag (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Telstar xG
Expected Goals
1.71
ADO Den Haag xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Telstar vs ADO Den Haag kick off?
Telstar vs ADO Den Haag kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 15 March 2024 at 711 Stadion.
What was the final score in Telstar vs ADO Den Haag?
Telstar 3 - 1 ADO Den Haag.
Where is Telstar vs ADO Den Haag being played?
The match is being played at 711 Stadion.
What competition is Telstar vs ADO Den Haag part of?
Telstar vs ADO Den Haag is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Telstar vs ADO Den Haag?
Our statistical model gives Telstar a 27% chance of winning, ADO Den Haag a 47% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making ADO Den Haag the favourite.
Will both teams score in Telstar vs ADO Den Haag?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Telstar and ADO Den Haag will score (BTTS).
Will Telstar vs ADO Den Haag have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and ADO Den Haag?
Record (5 meetings): Telstar 0W | Draws 2 | ADO Den Haag 3W.
What form are Telstar and ADO Den Haag in?
Telstar (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. ADO Den Haag (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Telstar's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against ADO Den Haag's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, ADO Den Haag's attack versus Telstar's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
27%
3.70
26%
3.83
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Telstar xG
Total xG
2.97
1.71
ADO Den Haag xG
3.70
27%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
18%
5.53
28%
3.52
Win to Nil
5%
20.43
13%
7.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.8 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.1 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Telstar vs ADO Den Haag?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Telstar and ADO Den Haag expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Telstar and 1.71 for ADO Den Haag, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Telstar vs ADO Den Haag?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Telstar come into this having played 67 games, going 20W 17D 30L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-L.
On the other side, ADO Den Haag sit at 1.58 PPG from 67 outings (28W 22D 17L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-D across their last five.
ADO Den Haag carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Telstar — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Telstar's home form reads 12W 9D 12L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, ADO Den Haag have taken 1.61 points per game from 33 outings (14W 11D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Telstar are averaging 1.01 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; ADO Den Haag are on 1.69 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ADO Den Haag in 69%.
Last 67 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Telstar
Current Season
ADO Den Haag
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Telstar and ADO Den Haag in coming into this match?
Telstar have gone 20W 17D 30L in their last 67 games (1.15 PPG), while ADO Den Haag have gone 28W 22D 17L in their last 67 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Telstar at home or ADO Den Haag away?
ADO Den Haag's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Telstar at home: 1.36 PPG; ADO Den Haag away: 1.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Telstar go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Telstar's record when hosting ADO Den Haag specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Telstar
4
Draws
3
ADO Den Haag
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and ADO Den Haag?
From 10 meetings on record, Telstar have won 3, ADO Den Haag have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Telstar and ADO Den Haag last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2025, when ADO Den Haag 0-1 Telstar.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Telstar 54%, ADO Den Haag 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Telstar) and 58% (ADO Den Haag).
On the defensive side: ADO Den Haag in 30%; Telstar have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Telstar home games / ADO Den Haag away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Telstar play ADO Den Haag?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Telstar's games and 67% of ADO Den Haag's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Telstar vs ADO Den Haag usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Telstar's recent games and 58% of ADO Den Haag's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Telstar and ADO Den Haag tend to score early?
Telstar have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, ADO Den Haag in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Telstar cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over ADO Den Haag.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Telstar beat ADO Den Haag 3-1 at 711 Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 1.26 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.71 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Telstar beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 0.84 / defence 1.06 against ADO Den Haag attack 1.20 / defence 0.92, drawn from 67/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Telstar 27% | Draw 26% | ADO Den Haag 47%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Telstar win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 46%, ADO Den Haag 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Telstar's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.15. Form was overturned, with Telstar winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Telstar (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.