De Graafschap 0-2 Jong Ajax – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates De Graafschap at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jong Ajax make the trip to Stadion De Vijverberg to face De Graafschap in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Monday 11 March 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
De Graafschap (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Stadion De Vijverberg, De Graafschap have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Jong Ajax's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong Ajax have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in De Graafschap's favour (1.90 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Jong Ajax in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: De Graafschap 2W, Jong Ajax 2W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2023, ended 2–1 with De Graafschap winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
De Graafschap half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Jong Ajax half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 54% and Jong Ajax 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 60% | Jong Ajax 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 2.04 xG and Jong Ajax 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.078 / defence 0.866 | Jong Ajax attack 0.957 / defence 1.171. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.330. Data: 67 De Graafschap games / 67 Jong Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 58% | Draw 23% | Jong Ajax 19%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Jong Ajax 5.26. The model has a clear lean to De Graafschap (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.15 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 60% | Jong Ajax 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Monday 11 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 58% | Draw 23% | Jong Ajax 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 59% | xG De Graafschap 2.04 / Jong Ajax 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.078 / def 0.866 | Jong Ajax attack 0.957 / def 1.171 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.330 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Jong Ajax xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax kick off?
De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 11 March 2024 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax?
De Graafschap 0 - 2 Jong Ajax.
Where is De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax part of?
De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 58% chance of winning, Jong Ajax a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both De Graafschap and Jong Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Jong Ajax?
Record (5 meetings): De Graafschap 2W | Draws 1 | Jong Ajax 2W.
What form are De Graafschap and Jong Ajax in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Jong Ajax (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates De Graafschap's attack at 1.08x the league average against Jong Ajax's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 2.04 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jong Ajax's attack (0.96x) against De Graafschap's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
58%
1.73
23%
4.26
19%
5.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
3.15
1.10
Jong Ajax xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
5.36
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
13%
7.72
Win to Nil
19%
5.20
2%
41.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Jong Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.10 for Jong Ajax, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
De Graafschap come into this having played 67 games, going 31W 11D 25L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, Jong Ajax sit at 1.13 PPG from 67 outings (19W 19D 29L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five.
De Graafschap carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Jong Ajax — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
De Graafschap's home form reads 18W 5D 10L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong Ajax have taken 0.85 points per game from 33 outings (6W 10D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
De Graafschap are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Jong Ajax are on 1.66 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Ajax in 70%.
Last 67 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Current Season
Jong Ajax
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Jong Ajax in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 31W 11D 25L in their last 67 games (1.55 PPG), while Jong Ajax have gone 19W 19D 29L in their last 67 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Jong Ajax away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.79 PPG; Jong Ajax away: 0.85 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or Jong Ajax been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Jong Ajax in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong Ajax won 5-1 on 22 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, De Graafschap have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jong Ajax — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
De Graafschap
2
Draws
4
Jong Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Jong Ajax?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 4, Jong Ajax have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Jong Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when De Graafschap 4-0 Jong Ajax.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 46%, Jong Ajax 79% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (De Graafschap) and 70% (Jong Ajax). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Jong Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Jong Ajax?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of De Graafschap's games and 79% of Jong Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of De Graafschap's matches and 70% of Jong Ajax's.
Do De Graafschap and Jong Ajax tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Jong Ajax in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong Ajax cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over De Graafschap.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Ajax beat De Graafschap 0-2 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 31, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 2.04 xG and Jong Ajax 1.10 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. De Graafschap fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Jong Ajax outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.08 / defence 0.87 against Jong Ajax attack 0.96 / defence 1.17, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 58% | Draw 23% | Jong Ajax 19%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Jong Ajax win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 60%, Jong Ajax 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Jong Ajax's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.13. Form was overturned, with Jong Ajax winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.