Jong AZ 2-0 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jong AZ at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong AZ vs Cambuur encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
AFAS Trainingscomplex plays host to Jong AZ versus Cambuur in Eerste Divisie (matchday 30). Kick-off: Friday 15 March 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Jong AZ have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Jong AZ at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Cambuur's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Cambuur away from home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Jong AZ's favour (1.50 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Jong AZ edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 15 Dec 2023, ended Jong AZ 2–1 Cambuur — a Jong AZ win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Jong AZ — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Cambuur — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong AZ 60% and Cambuur 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong AZ 60% | Cambuur 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 2.38 xG and Cambuur 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 1.240 / defence 0.973 | Cambuur attack 1.080 / defence 1.189. League average goals — home 1.616 / away 1.339. Data: built from Jong AZ's last 68 games and Cambuur's last 29.
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 58% | Draw 21% | Cambuur 21%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 1.71 | Draw 4.83 | Cambuur 4.77. The model has a clear lean to Jong AZ (58%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.79. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.79 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (2.38 / 1.41) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong AZ are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.79 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Jong AZ's last 10 home games and Cambuur's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Jong AZ 50% (last 10 home games) | Cambuur 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs Cambuur | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 30 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Friday 15 March 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 58% | Draw 21% | Cambuur 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% (Under 27%) | BTTS Yes 69% (No 31%) | xG Jong AZ 2.38 / Cambuur 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 1.240 / def 0.973 | Cambuur attack 1.080 / def 1.189 | league avg home 1.616 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.38
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Cambuur xG
69%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Jong AZ vs Cambuur FAQs
What time does Jong AZ vs Cambuur kick off?
Jong AZ vs Cambuur kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 15 March 2024 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs Cambuur?
Jong AZ 2 - 0 Cambuur.
Where is Jong AZ vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs Cambuur part of?
Jong AZ vs Cambuur is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 30) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 58% chance of winning, Cambuur a 21% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Jong AZ and Cambuur will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Jong AZ vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Jong AZ's attack at 1.24x the league average against Cambuur's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 2.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cambuur's attack (1.08x) against Jong AZ's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from Jong AZ's last 68 games and Cambuur's last 29 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.6%), 3-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
58%
1.71
21%
4.83
21%
4.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.6%
Draw
3 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.38
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
3.79
1.41
Cambuur xG
1.71
58%
Home win
4.83
21%
Draw
4.77
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.26
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
9%
10.83
Win to Nil
14%
7.01
2%
51.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Jong AZ vs Cambuur Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 2.38 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.41 for Cambuur, a combined total of 3.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs Cambuur?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jong AZ's recent record stands at 22W 16D 25L from 63 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with D-L-D-W-L in the last five.
Cambuur, meanwhile, have gone 16W 10D 37L across 63 games — 0.92 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Jong AZ against 0.92 for Cambuur. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Jong AZ have managed 14W 9D 8L from their last 31 home games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cambuur's away record stands at 8W 6D 17L across their last 31 away games, a 0.97 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong AZ come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jong AZ are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.40 scored and 2.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Cambuur in 60%.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Current Season
Cambuur
Current Season
Jong AZ (Home) vs Cambuur (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Jong AZ
Current Season
Cambuur
Current Season
❓ Jong AZ vs Cambuur Form FAQs
What form are Jong AZ and Cambuur in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 22W 16D 25L in their last 63 games (1.30 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 16W 10D 37L in their last 63 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or Cambuur away?
Jong AZ's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 1.65 PPG; Cambuur away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 20 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong AZ have gone 1W 0D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Cambuur — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Jong AZ
0
Draws
2
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Jong AZ vs Cambuur H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Cambuur?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Jong AZ have won 4, Cambuur have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and Cambuur last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 March 2026: Cambuur 3-4 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and Cambuur?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 55%, Cambuur 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Jong AZ) and 64% (Cambuur). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong AZ keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Cambuur in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Jong AZ vs Cambuur Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Jong AZ and Cambuur matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Jong AZ's games and 64% of Cambuur's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Jong AZ and Cambuur matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Jong AZ's matches and 64% of Cambuur's.
Do Jong AZ and Cambuur matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Jong AZ's recent matches and 74% of Cambuur's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong AZ cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cambuur.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong AZ beat Cambuur 2-0 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 30, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 2.38 xG and Cambuur 1.41 xG, a combined 3.79. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Cambuur landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 1.24 / defence 0.97 against Cambuur attack 1.08 / defence 1.19, drawn from 68/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 58% | Draw 21% | Cambuur 21%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 60%, Cambuur 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Cambuur's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.30 PPG, Cambuur 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong AZ win broke the near-deadlock. Jong AZ (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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