Jong Utrecht 2-3 Emmen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Jong Utrecht at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong Utrecht vs Emmen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch plays host to Jong Utrecht versus Emmen in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Friday 15 March 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Jong Utrecht have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Jong Utrecht's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Emmen (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Emmen's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.50 for Jong Utrecht, 0.70 for Emmen — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Emmen, who have claimed 3 wins from 3 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2023, ended 0–2 with Emmen winning.
It is worth noting that Emmen have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Jong Utrecht half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Emmen half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Utrecht 43% versus Emmen 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 46% | Emmen 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 1.09 xG and Emmen 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.558 / defence 1.066 | Emmen attack 0.743 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.616 / away 1.339. Jong Utrecht's attack strength of 0.558 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Emmen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.213 — this is suppressing Jong Utrecht's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 68 Jong Utrecht games / 29 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 35% | Draw 32% | Emmen 33%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | Emmen 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong Utrecht at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong Utrecht if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.16 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Jong Utrecht 30% | Emmen 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch • Kick-off: Friday 15 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 35% | Draw 32% | Emmen 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Jong Utrecht 1.09 / Emmen 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 0.558 / def 1.066 | Emmen attack 0.743 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.616 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Jong Utrecht (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Emmen xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Utrecht vs Emmen kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs Emmen kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 15 March 2024 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs Emmen?
Jong Utrecht 2 - 3 Emmen.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs Emmen part of?
Jong Utrecht vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 35% chance of winning, Emmen a 33% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Jong Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Jong Utrecht and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Utrecht vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Emmen?
Record (3 meetings): Jong Utrecht 0W | Draws 0 | Emmen 3W.
What form are Jong Utrecht and Emmen in?
Jong Utrecht (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Emmen (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Jong Utrecht's attack rating (0.56) and Emmen's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Emmen's attack (0.74x) against Jong Utrecht's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 68/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Utrecht Win
35%
2.88
32%
3.10
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
2.16
1.06
Emmen xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
12%
8.32
11%
9.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 12.3 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 1.06 for Emmen, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs Emmen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 67 outings, Jong Utrecht have picked up 0.76 PPG on a 12W 15D 40L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Emmen's form line: 19W 16D 32L from 67 games, 1.09 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.76 PPG for Jong Utrecht against 1.09 for Emmen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Jong Utrecht have posted 1.12 PPG from 33 outings (9W 10D 14L).
On the road, Emmen have gone 8W 5D 20L from 33 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Jong Utrecht are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.15 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Current Season
Emmen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Utrecht and Emmen in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 12W 15D 40L in their last 67 games (0.76 PPG), while Emmen have gone 19W 16D 32L in their last 67 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or Emmen away?
Jong Utrecht's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 1.12 PPG; Emmen away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 2 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Emmen go into this on the back of 8 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong Utrecht have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Emmen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Jong Utrecht
0
Draws
8
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Emmen?
From 8 meetings on record, Jong Utrecht have won 0, Emmen have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2026, when Emmen 1-0 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and Emmen?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jong Utrecht see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Utrecht 33%, Emmen 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Jong Utrecht) and 67% (Emmen).
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Jong Utrecht have failed to score in 48% of games; Emmen in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Utrecht play Emmen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Jong Utrecht's recent matches and 61% of Emmen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong Utrecht vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Jong Utrecht's recent games and 67% of Emmen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong Utrecht and Emmen tend to score early?
Jong Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Emmen in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Emmen defy the odds to beat Jong Utrecht 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat Jong Utrecht 2-3 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Regular Season - 30, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 1.09 xG and Emmen 1.06 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Jong Utrecht beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Emmen outscored their 1.06 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.56 / defence 1.07 against Emmen attack 0.74 / defence 1.21, drawn from 68/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 35% | Draw 32% | Emmen 33%, with Jong Utrecht to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Emmen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 46%, Emmen 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Emmen's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Utrecht 0.76 PPG, Emmen 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Emmen win broke the near-deadlock. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Emmen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.