FC Eindhoven 3-2 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Eindhoven at 51%, yet in-form Almere City FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC Eindhoven vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Eindhoven host Almere City FC at Jan Louwers Stadion in Eerste Divisie (matchday 28). Kick-off is Saturday 21 February 2026 at 15:30 UK time.
Form Guide
FC Eindhoven — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
FC Eindhoven at home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.60 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Across their last 10 games, Almere City FC have recorded 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Almere City FC have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Almere City FC — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for FC Eindhoven, 4 for Almere City FC and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 Sep 2025, ended FC Eindhoven 0–5 Almere City FC — a Almere City FC win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
FC Eindhoven trading profile (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Almere City FC trading profile (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Eindhoven 45% versus Almere City FC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 60% | Almere City FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 2.28 xG and Almere City FC 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 1.125 / defence 1.057 | Almere City FC attack 1.072 / defence 1.205. League average goals — home 1.683 / away 1.476. Almere City FC's defence rating of 1.205 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC Eindhoven's projected output up. Data: built from FC Eindhoven's last 64 games and Almere City FC's last 26.
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 51% | Draw 21% | Almere City FC 28%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 1.95 | Draw 4.77 | Almere City FC 3.59. FC Eindhoven hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS Yes probability 73% | Total xG 3.96. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.96 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% — both xG figures (2.28 / 1.67) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Eindhoven at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Almere City FC (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 76% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (FC Eindhoven's last 10 home games and Almere City FC's last 10 away games) averaging 4.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Eindhoven 50% (last 10 home games) | Almere City FC 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 28 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 21 February 2026 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 51% | Draw 21% | Almere City FC 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% (Under 24%) | BTTS Yes 73% (No 27%) | xG FC Eindhoven 2.28 / Almere City FC 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 1.125 / def 1.057 | Almere City FC attack 1.072 / def 1.205 | league avg home 1.683 / away 1.476 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.28
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Almere City FC xG
73%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Eindhoven vs Almere City FC FAQs
What time does FC Eindhoven vs Almere City FC kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs Almere City FC kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs Almere City FC?
FC Eindhoven 3 - 2 Almere City FC.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs Almere City FC part of?
FC Eindhoven vs Almere City FC is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 28) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 51% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 28% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both FC Eindhoven and Almere City FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC Eindhoven vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Eindhoven's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Almere City FC's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.28. The same calculation in reverse, Almere City FC's attack versus FC Eindhoven's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC Eindhoven's last 64 games and Almere City FC's last 26 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.3%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
51%
1.95
21%
4.77
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.3%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.28
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
3.96
1.67
Almere City FC xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.77
21%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.36
27%
BTTS No
3.76
Clean Sheet
19%
5.33
10%
9.80
Win to Nil
10%
10.41
3%
35.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 7.3 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.3 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Eindhoven vs Almere City FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.3%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.28 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.67 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 3.96.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Eindhoven come into this having played 60 games, going 21W 12D 27L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L.
On the other side, Almere City FC sit at 1.02 PPG from 60 outings (16W 13D 31L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Eindhoven on 1.25 PPG, Almere City FC on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Eindhoven's home form reads 9W 6D 14L across their last 29 home games, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Almere City FC have taken 0.93 points per game from their last 29 away games (7W 6D 16L).
The Goals Picture
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 1.27 scored and 1.77 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
FC Eindhoven (Home) vs Almere City FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Eindhoven
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
❓ FC Eindhoven vs Almere City FC Form FAQs
What form are FC Eindhoven and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 21W 12D 27L in their last 60 games (1.25 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 16W 13D 31L in their last 60 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or Almere City FC away?
FC Eindhoven's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 1.14 PPG; Almere City FC away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. They cover more than one competition — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie. The most recent was as recently as 9 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 15 Sep 2025, when Almere City FC won Almere City FC 5-0 FC Eindhoven.
FC Eindhoven's record when hosting Almere City FC specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
FC Eindhoven
1
Draws
5
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Eindhoven vs Almere City FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Almere City FC?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Eindhoven have won 3, Almere City FC have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and Almere City FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 October 2026: Almere City FC 3-0 FC Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and Almere City FC?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Eindhoven 48%, Almere City FC 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for FC Eindhoven and 55% for Almere City FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven have failed to score in 28% of games; Almere City FC in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Eindhoven vs Almere City FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Eindhoven and Almere City FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of FC Eindhoven's recent matches and 48% of Almere City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FC Eindhoven and Almere City FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of FC Eindhoven's matches and 55% of Almere City FC's.
Do FC Eindhoven and Almere City FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of FC Eindhoven's recent matches and 83% of Almere City FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Eindhoven edge out Almere City FC 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Eindhoven beat Almere City FC 3-2 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 2.28 xG and Almere City FC 1.67 xG, a combined 3.96. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 1.12 / defence 1.06 against Almere City FC attack 1.07 / defence 1.21, drawn from 64/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 51% | Draw 21% | Almere City FC 28%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 60%, Almere City FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Almere City FC's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Eindhoven 1.25 PPG, Almere City FC 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Eindhoven win broke the near-deadlock. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm. Almere City FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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