Cambuur 2-1 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cambuur at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cambuur vs FC Eindhoven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cambuur and FC Eindhoven meet at Kooi Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 24 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cambuur's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at Kooi Stadion this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Eindhoven (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Eindhoven's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Cambuur's 2.10 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of FC Eindhoven's 1.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Cambuur 2W, FC Eindhoven 1W, 2D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.2 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Nov 2025, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Cambuur half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
FC Eindhoven half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambuur 51% versus FC Eindhoven 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 49% | FC Eindhoven 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 2.06 xG and FC Eindhoven 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 1.142 / defence 0.773 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.840 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.670 / away 1.460. Cambuur's defence rating of 0.773 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 63 Cambuur games / 65 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 62% | Draw 22% | FC Eindhoven 16%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | FC Eindhoven 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Cambuur (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cambuur at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 60% | FC Eindhoven 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Kooi Stadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 62% | Draw 22% | FC Eindhoven 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 54% | xG Cambuur 2.06 / FC Eindhoven 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 1.142 / def 0.773 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.840 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.670 / away 1.460 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
0.95
FC Eindhoven xG
54%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
Cambuur vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 24 February 2026 at Kooi Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs FC Eindhoven?
Cambuur 2 - 1 FC Eindhoven.
Where is Cambuur vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Kooi Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs FC Eindhoven part of?
Cambuur vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 62% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Cambuur and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and FC Eindhoven?
Record (5 meetings): Cambuur 2W | Draws 2 | FC Eindhoven 1W.
What form are Cambuur and FC Eindhoven in?
Cambuur (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cambuur's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against FC Eindhoven's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.06. Flip it around — FC Eindhoven's attack (0.84x) against Cambuur's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 63/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
62%
1.61
22%
4.48
16%
6.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Cambuur xG
Total xG
3.00
0.95
FC Eindhoven xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
6.40
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
13%
7.81
Win to Nil
24%
4.16
2%
49.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.2 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Cambuur and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Cambuur and 0.95 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs FC Eindhoven?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cambuur come into this having played 65 games, going 38W 12D 15L for 1.94 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Eindhoven sit at 1.31 PPG from 65 outings (24W 13D 28L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cambuur carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of FC Eindhoven — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Cambuur's home form reads 20W 6D 6L across 32 games on their own ground, a 2.06 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Eindhoven have taken 1.41 points per game from 32 outings (13W 6D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cambuur come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cambuur are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.49 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Defensively: Cambuur have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Blended
FC Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 38W 12D 15L in their last 65 games (1.94 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 24W 13D 28L in their last 65 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or FC Eindhoven away?
Cambuur's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 2.06 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Cambuur or FC Eindhoven been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cambuur have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, FC Eindhoven in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 24 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cambuur won 0-3 on 29 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cambuur have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against FC Eindhoven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Cambuur
2
Draws
1
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and FC Eindhoven?
From 6 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 3, FC Eindhoven have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2026, when Cambuur 2-1 FC Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and FC Eindhoven?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 53%, FC Eindhoven 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cambuur) and 53% (FC Eindhoven).
On the defensive side: Cambuur keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; FC Eindhoven in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play FC Eindhoven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Cambuur's recent matches and 44% of FC Eindhoven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cambuur vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cambuur's recent games and 53% of FC Eindhoven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cambuur and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cambuur edge out FC Eindhoven 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur beat FC Eindhoven 2-1 at Kooi Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 2.06 xG and FC Eindhoven 0.95 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.14 / defence 0.77 against FC Eindhoven attack 0.84 / defence 1.08, drawn from 63/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 62% | Draw 22% | FC Eindhoven 16%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 49%, FC Eindhoven 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.31. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.